The attack on the Italian base, and Trump’s new words
(Luca Angelini) He said it again: the conflict with Iran «it will end soon: There’s basically nothing left to hit, just a few little things here and there». The problem is, more Donald Trump he repeats it, less everyone else seems to believe him (also because he then alternates other phrases like this: «We don’t want to leave too soon. We have to finish our job»).
This is demonstrated by oil pricewhich yesterday rose towards 100 dollars a barrel (98.6 Brent at the time of closing this newsletter) despite the words of the American president and despite the move of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Founded in 1974 to compensate for market imbalances (it includes 32 countries which alone cover around 80% of consumption), yesterday it unanimously decided to put into circulation 400 million barrels, drawing on strategic reserves. The largest share, around 70% according to the president Emmanuel Macroncomes from the G7 states: USA, Japan, Germany, United Kingdom, France, Italy and Canada.
«There is therefore an internal contradiction in Washington – notes Giuseppe Sarcina -. On the one hand, Trump is sure that the crisis is temporary; on the other hand, its representatives in the IEA recognize that the bottleneck risks damaging the world economy» (and the president himself later confirmed: «I will take some oil from US strategic reserves»).
That is the bottleneck, geographical as well as metaphorical of the Strait of Hormuz. Before the US and Israeli offensive, they passed through there approximately 17-18 million barrels per dayabout a fifth of global demand and a quarter of crude oil transported by ship. Now the flow has almost stopped (the 400 million barrels of strategic reserves can compensate for a Hormuz blockade lasting a maximum of 23-25 days). «I don’t know that there are mines: I invite ships to pass through them, we will guarantee maximum safety», the American president said again (Pentagon sources, however the Reuters agency writes, report that the Pasdaran would have hidden 12 bombs at seaalready located). And he added that the Iranian navy has been hit hard, «even though we’re not done yet»: approximately 60 units sunk, including “28 minelayers” (rise to 31 when he spoke at a rally in Kentucky).
Words, numbers. But the images of the smoke rising from the three ships hit yesterday by the Iranian Pasdaranthe Express Roomwhich flies the flag of Liberia, but according to Tehran belongs to Israel, the Mayuree Nareea Thai merchant ship and a third party reported by the British maritime safety authority but not better identified, risk weighing much more than his words. And the European lists also weighed down yesterday, with Piazza Affari at -0.95%. When it was late in the evening in Italy, the news arrived two oil tankers hit and on fire off the Iraqi port of Umm Qasrnear Basra (here is the in-depth analysis by Rinaldo Frignani, together with general Vincenzo Camporini, on why it is complicated to protect ships in the Strait of Hormuz).
Guido Olimpio thus summarizes the unknowns on the possible evolution of the conflict: «There are two messages arriving from the Gulf: Iran has kept his war promises and it has adapted your device. They are not surprises but confirmations of what had been taken into account. This is the evaluation of the moment a conflict that no one knows how it will end. (…) Tehran’s plan aims at a frictional conflicta continuous war which must scare the White House, the markets, the electorate. The guardians they don’t win, but they don’t lose. But the challenge also hides a bluff because Iran is suffering significant damage and it is not as if it was in good condition before the hostilities. Repression, inflation, water crisis and all the negative effects due both to the embargo and to the errors of those who governed while ignoring social demands. However, for now, Tehran is trying to hold its own by involving as many countries as possible. This is what drones and missiles launched against the Sunni monarchies, Azerbaijan, Turkey, the most distant Cyprus are for” (in our Review, Gianluca Mercuri outlined four possible scenarios, summarizing the analyzes of various experts).
Yesterday one sentencing resolution of Iranian attacks on neighboring countries was adopted, albeit with abstention, in the UN Security Council, Russia and China, and saw a record number of co-sponsors: 135. The resolution reiterates «the stopper support for territorial integrity, sovereignty and political independence of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan, and condemns attacks on residential areas and civilian targets». The Iranian ambassador to the UN, Amir Saeed Iravanihe protested: «Today’s action represents a blatant abuse of the mandate of the Security Council to pursue the political objectives of some members, the various States responsible for the brutal war of aggression against my country».
To Greta Privitera, Esmail Baghaispokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchidice: «In June we attacked the American base in Qatar with maximum self-restraint, but this time they assassinated our supreme leader, our most important commanders. Do you expect a nation with such a rich civilization, a sovereign state, to remain inert in the face of this atrocious aggression? We asked our neighbors not to allow the US to abuse their territory. I understand that you are worried about the price of oil, but our people are being massacred. Europeans have a great responsibility, they should not please the USA and Israel. Trump made a miscalculation. He thought that if they attacked Iran people would take to the streets. He doesn’t know what the majority of Iranians are patriotic. They may not like the system, but they love their homeland. Trump’s intentions have to do with the existence of Iran».
(Greta Privitera also writes an analysis on quartet that leads Iranwhile Federico Fubini explains how Beijing try not to lose the regime of the ayatollahs and the crude oil of the Islamic Republic)
The attack on the Italian base
Late in the evening, the Minister of Defense, Guido Crosettohe made it known that it was an Italian military base in Erbil hit by a missilein Iraqi Kurdistan. There were no injuries. The Foreign Minister, Antonio Tajanisaid he spoke with our ambassador to Iraq and was assured that our military is all safe in a bunkeralthough it is not known whether the attack has concluded or is still ongoing. «The Italian base in Erbil is a base within a district that includes other bases in other countrieswe don’t know if it was directed against the Italians or against that settlement in general» he specified. When asked about the consequences of a hostile act of this magnitude, the Foreign Minister specified that at the moment «it is not clear whether it was an Iranian missile or a pro-Iranian militias», what is certain is that «we know that that part of Kurdistan is under attack, the situation is dangerous».
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