This is Ukraine that Putin does not abdicate

Maps do not deceive and there is territory that the president of Russia does not really want to abdicate. The analysis before the decisive summit with Donald Trump in Alasca

The President of the United States, Donald Trump, and Russian President Vladimir Putin gathers a summit in Alaska that aims to – at least on the United States – end to the war that followed the total invasion of Russia in 2022. Any peace agreement around Ukraine would have to involve a fifth -term agreement with Russia to occupy almost one fifth of the territory. Ukrainian.

Last Friday, Trump suggested that a ceasefire agreement could involve “some territory exchange,” but it is not yet clear to which areas was referring to, and Ukraine categorically rejected parts of its territory. Russia also rejected the idea.

Already on Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron said Trump was “very clear” in a call with European leaders: Washington DC wants to get a ceasefire and Ukraine’s territorial issues cannot be negotiated without his president, Volodymyr Zelensky.

This is what the maps tell us about what is at stake.

What territory are we talking about?

One of the proposals, whose elements appeared last week, allegedly presented to the US envoy-partial, Steve Witkoff, in Moscow, would consist of Ukraine to give the rest of the eastern region of Donetsk and Lugansk, jointly known as Donbass, in exchange for a ceasefire.

But this week, the situation in Donetsk was rapidly deteriorated, with the Russian forces making important advances northeast of Dobropilia, changing control of the area that Witkoff has been discussing with Kremlin. Kiev devalued the advances as infiltrations of small groups of Russian forces, but sent reinforcements. Other Ukrainian sources in the zone paint a more terrible picture, in which months of persistent Russian pressure culminated in a weakness to explore.

How could it be a “exchange”?

It would be politically toxic for Zelensky to order tens of thousands of civilians and troops that voluntarily abandon the Donetsk region. Many could refuse. The practical elements would be impossible – to remove tens of thousands of civilians on days or weeks to adapt to the calendar of a peace agreement elaborated during a Russian summer offensive where Moscow forces are gaining ground.

There are few obvious options for Moscow to give in. To the north, near Sumy and Kharkiv, the Russians hold some border zones, both designated as “buffer zones” by the Kremlin chief, and which are the result of unve course raids designed to exhaust Ukraine staff. But they are tiny and, as the Ukrainian responsible, are also part of Ukraine and not Russia. Therefore, they are not an obvious or equal “exchange”.

And the other areas occupied?

Some of the confusion about Witkoff meeting at Kremlin was knowing if Putin had retreated in his maximalist war goals and had granted potential ceasefire only in exchange for Donetsk. Putin always wanted much more and, in fact, the Russian Constitution perpetuated the false narrative that Ukraine is historically Russia, adding to its territory the four partially occupied regions of Ukraine.

Moscow holds most of Donetsk and almost the entire Lugansk region. But it only controls about two thirds of Kherson and Zaporizehzia, respectively, having been partially released from the Russian forces in late 2022.

Would Putin agree to leave the parts of Kerson and Zaporizehzia controlled by the Ukrainians under the control of Kiev? This is not yet clear. But the assignment of this territory by Ukraine would be another impossible hypothesis, as it would require the surrender of vast extensions of land to Moscow and, in fact, the evacuation of the entire bustling city of Zaprizhzia or its transformation into Russian territory. Zelensky also warned that the territory given to Russia would simply be used as a springboard for new invasions, as happened with Crimea, illegally attached by Moscow in 2014, and used as a large -scale launch platform in 2022.

So what can you do to freeze the front lines now?

The declarations of the European allies of Ukraine suggested that the current contact line was the starting point for negotiations. This is not exactly a concession, but an important change of tone. For years, Europe and Kiev – together with the Biden Administration – have declared that they will never recognize or accept Russian control over Ukraine’s busy parts. But since Trump’s return to the White House, they have been softening their position, discreetly feeding the idea that the front lines can be frozen.

In fact, this would be a good result for Kiev now. Although Russian advances close to Dobropilia in recent days are inconclusive, in the set of front lines are turning months of incremental progress into more strategic gains. Putin is clearly gaining time, both in recent months of slow diplomacy in Istanbul and Alaska, where the White House has turned a summit aimed at an immediate peace agreement to avoid hard sanctions into a softer “listening exercise”.

For Kiev, the best result would be Trump to say, as he understood, that “in the first two minutes” of the meeting of course there is no agreement to make, and then impose secondary sanctions against the great energy customers of Moscow – India and China – which promised to implement last Friday.

But the relationship between Trump and Putin rests on an opaque connection that often seems to override the long-term security interests of the United States, so the result of his Alaska meeting will probably be less favorable to Ukraine and certainly a high-risk data game.

CNN’s Nick Paton Walsh made the report from Kiev, with graphics by Rachel Wilson and Lou Robinson in London