Kiev‘s tactics according to Putin‘s former advisor: «The plan that Zelensky is developing with European leaders is anything but stupid»
«Anything but take it or leave it by November 27th, it will still be a long time. And it might not even end.” Sergei Markov he is not Friar Indovino, he doesn’t even resemble us, neither in physique nor in nature, the latter being anything but pacifist. But the teacher, political scientist and advisor to Vladimir Putin from 2011 to 2019it often gets us.
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Just to give an example, immediately after the August summit in Alaska, he was the first to say that nothing would come of it, that Donald Trump would give Russia time to advance the field, or at least try to do so, and then he would come forward with new proposals that would not displease the Kremlin.
Three months have passed that seem like years. Meanwhile, Markov has been labeled a foreign agent due to his dealings with Azerbaijan, which his former employer disliked, and continues to give interviews to US, Arab and European media in which he uses his realpolitik vision reinforced by a certain cynicism. “The plan that Volodymyr Zelensky is developing together with European leaders is anything but stupid.”
How will it end this time?
«Everyone will put pressure on the USA. And from within, Marco Rubio and the Republicans linked to the military industry will put pressure on Trump, first to prolong the negotiations, then to change them by strengthening the points of the current plan that are against Russia.”
There really are?
«I have always maintained that demilitarization and denazification would remain as demands, but that Putin was anything but rigid on those two issues. It seems to me that this is how it is going.”
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Doesn’t imposing elections in Ukraine within one hundred days also mean imposing the end of Zelensky?
«Even Trump is convinced that Putin hates Zelensky. But I guarantee you are wrong, everyone. He despises him, which is different from hatred. It does not recognize any legitimacy. And then let’s go, everyone knows that after Zelensky, and after what happened, someone worse than him will come, who hates Russia even more. From this point of view, the hope of many regarding the return of Ukraine under our sphere of influence is no longer current.”
Will the pressures you talk about be successful?
«Zelensky is calling on all of Ukraine to unite around him, to avert the plan judged to be “pro-Russian” as it is, and at the same time to make people forget the corruption scandal that has hit him. Then he will make Europe work to ensure that Trump’s team brings to Moscow a revised and corrected peace plan with points that Putin will not like. And after our refusal, all together they will ask Trump to increase arms supplies to Ukraine and new sanctions against Russia. It has its own logic, nothing to say.”
What are the non-negotiable points for Russia?
«There is one that no one talks about and which seems to me to have already disappeared from the European counter-proposal: state recognition of the Russian language in Ukraine. Westerners want to exclude it by default. Maybe because they know that Putin will never give up, and therefore the negotiation will fail.”
What will Trump do?
«It seems to me that what happened during his first mandate is being repeated. I know for a fact that the Kremlin also leans towards a scenario that sees the American president neutralized, or in any case hostage of his so-called Deep State. But if this time too nothing is achieved, it will leave Europe alone to deal with Ukraine. Ultimately, that’s what Putin wants, to achieve a full victory. And it doesn’t seem to me that your leaders have much desire to manage this matter independently. As you can see, everything is swinging this way and that.”
What are Putin’s true feelings towards the USA?
«He is not investing much in his relationship with Trump. Try not to offend him. I proposed appointing 2-3 full-time laudatores who will professionally praise the US president. There is Dmitriev who is already doing it, we need someone else. But little more than that. There is a strongly negative attitude of our people towards the “Yankees”. I assure you that in the Kremlin they pay close attention to the mood of society. Therefore, never friends with the USA.”
Following his reasoning, why then does Putin show this contempt towards Europe?
«Of course, our society continues to look favorably towards Europe. In fact, when the war is over, and when your leaders stop saying that we want to attack you, it will be natural and much easier to improve relations with you rather than with the USA. It may seem like a paradox, but it’s true.”
