In the last day of January, the dollar opens lower. Today the attention will be on the Board of the Bank of the Republic, which will have its monetary policy meeting. The market does not expect rates to rise yet because they have not yet seen an increase in inflation data. “We must wait for the January data and its evolution and then the Bank will proceed with decisions,” said Mauricio Acevedo, currency and derivatives strategist at Corficolombiana.
The currency opened the day lower at $3,645, which represented a drop of $16.29 compared to the Representative Market Rate, TRM, which for today stood at $3,661.29; At 10:30 am it hit a minimum of $3,638 and a maximum of $3,671.9 and 536 transactions had been made for US$343.4 million.
On the international scene, the president of the United States, Donald Trump, assured that the new president of the Federal Reserve is Kevin Warsh, former governor of the FEDto direct monetary policy. “The current Fed chairman, whose term ends in March, has received persistent criticism from Trump for what the president considers excessively high rates,” Acevedo explained.
“I have known Kevin for a long time, and I have no doubt that he will become one of the presidents of the FED, perhaps the best”Trump wrote. “On top of everything else, he is ‘central casting,’ and he will never let you down.”
Warsh, who served on the Board of Governors of the US central bank from 2006 to 2011 and has previously advised Trump on economic policy, He would succeed Jerome Powell when his term ends in May. It marks a return for Warsh, 55, whom the president passed over for the top job in 2017 when he selected Powell.
If confirmed by the Senate, the former FED governor will take charge of US monetary policy at a time when many economists and investors see his traditional isolation from elected officials as threatened by the White House. Warsh aligned himself with the president in 2025 by publicly arguing for lower interest rates, going against his long-standing reputation as an inflation hawk.
During his time at the FED, Warsh was consistently wary of inflation and often supported higher interest rates. Last year, however, he echoed Trump’s view that rates could be significantly lower. The willingness to cut rates is seen as a litmus test for the next chair, worrying FED watchers that this would undermine the central bank’s independence.
Warsh’s selection does not guarantee a change in FED policy. Interest rates are set by majority vote of the 12-member Federal Open Market Committee, which is made up of seven governors of the FED and five of the 12 presidents of the regional banks of the FED. The Fomc held its benchmark rate steady this week after cutting it three consecutive times by the end of 2025, and rates remain well above where Trump has said he wants them.
His Senate confirmation may also be complicated by a recently announced Justice Department investigation into the central bank. On January 9, the FED received subpoenas regarding Powell’s 2025 congressional testimony on a building renovation project. Powell issued an extraordinary videotaped statement denouncing the investigation, and several Republican lawmakers came to the central bank’s defense, with one pledging to block any FED nomination until the legal matter was resolved.
Oil prices
Oil prices fell almost 1% on Friday on signs that the United States could engage in dialogue with Iran over its nuclear program, which reduced concerns about possible supply disruptions as a result of a US attack.
Brent fell 1%, to US$70.03 a barrel. The contract for March delivery expires later on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.1% to $64.70 per barrel.
“President Trump’s willingness to give diplomacy a chance with respect to Iran appears to make US military intervention less likely than yesterday.”said PVM Oil Associate analyst Tamas Varga.
Tensions in the Middle East and oil prices had risen this week as the United States has reinforced its military presence in the region. US President Donald Trump on Wednesday urged Iran to reach a nuclear weapons deal or face an attack, but on Thursday said he planned to speak with the country’s leaders.
Despite Friday’s declines, benchmark prices remained on track for big monthly gains. Brent crude oil was on track for its biggest monthly gain since January 2022 and WTI was poised for its biggest monthly gain since July 2023.
The pressure on prices came from the rise of the dollar, which earlier in the week had hit a four-year low. Friday’s gains followed Trump’s announcement that he would soon name his nominee to lead the Federal Reserve.
A stronger dollar may limit demand from oil buyers who pay in other currencies. “The increase in US crude oil production after the closures and the upcoming resumption of production at the Tengiz field in Kazakhstanalso contribute to the change in trend, and given the bullish evolution of the week, it is reasonable to expect some profit taking before the weekend,” Varga added.
Meanwhile, maintenance peaks at Russian primary oil refineries are expected to occur this month and in September, according to Reuters calculations based on estimates from industry sources.
