Population Decline 2040: HCP Projections & Aging Trends

In the space of only five decades, Morocco has completed the demographic transition that advanced countries have known over almost a century. The fertility rate thus fell from 7.2 children per woman in 1960 to only 1.97 in 2024, with regard to the decline of age at marriage, increased use of contraception, access to education, development of transport and increasing urbanization.

Consequently, the increase rate, which amounted to 2.6 % in the 1970s, fell to 0.85 % today and should go back to 0.6 % by 2040. Despite this deceleration, the population will continue to increase in absolute value, according to the projections of the High Commission for Plan.

Between 2024 and 2040, demographic growth will correspond each year to the addition of an average city of 230,000 inhabitants, which will exert increased pressure on social needs, in particular in terms of infrastructure, basic services and resource management. This demographic transition leads to a progressive reversal of the age pyramid which will result, in the future, by a relative increase in the population of working age compared to dependent people (children and the elderly), thus creating a potential for economic growth.

In detail, the HCP stresses that the population of young people under the age of 15 would experience a gradual decrease under the effect of the expected decrease in fertility. Their number, estimated at 9.76 million in 2024, would drop at around 7.8 million in 2040, retreating their share in the total population of 26.5 % to almost 19.2 % over the same period.

For children from 6 to 11 years old, corresponding to the school population in primary school, this decrease would reach 26.7 %, from 4.2 million in 2024 to 3 million in 2040, estimates the HCP, stressing that the age group of the Second Cycle of the Fundamental (12-14 years) will see its workforce decrease by 2.1 million to 1.5 million over the same period.

In the eyes of the HCP, this development could constitute an asset for the generalization of schooling and offer an opportunity to redirect relating demographic investments towards improving the quality of education and to exceed the current dysfunctions of high rates of school loss, reduce spatial disparities, improve school transition rates to qualifying and higher secondary school.

In addition, demographic projections indicate that the share of people aged 60 and over is expected from 13.8 % in 2024 to 19.5 % in 2040, an increase of 58 %, bringing their workforce to almost 7.9 million. Thus, the extension of life expectancy, combined with the growing nuclearization of families, will test intergenerational solidarity and challenge the public authorities to rethink the social protection system, in particular pension plans, strengthening the management of chronic diseases and the adaptation of social services.

The demographic transition leads to a profound transformation of the age structure of the population, characterized by a relative increase in the working age population (15-59 years) compared to dependent people (children and the elderly). To take full advantage of this window of demographic opportunity, the HCP underlines the need to guarantee generalized access to quality education and to stimulate job creation through the implementation of adapted economic reforms.

The urbanization rate, estimated at 62.8 % in 2024, should reach almost 69.2 % in 2040. The urban population would drop from 23.6 to 28 million inhabitants, while the rural population would decrease from 13.7 to 12.4 million. Hence the need, recalls the HCP, to set up an integrated territorial development strategy aimed at reducing social and spatial disparities.

In addition, the number of households in Morocco is experiencing continuous increase, reaching 9.26 million in 2024 and which can amount to 12.3 million in 2040, according to demographic projections, an increase of 32.5 %, due to the decrease in the average size of households, which would drop from 3.9 to 3.3 people over the same period. Something that HCP attributes to the evolution of family behavior, such as growing individualism, the increase in the number of singles and the decline in the number of children per family, but also to the phenomenon of rural exodus.

It will also not be without challenges in terms of housing, since Morocco will have to build nearly 3 million additional dwellings by 2040 in order to respond to this growing demand, while fighting against unhealthy habitat, still present in several regions of the country.

In terms of immigration, the HCP highlights the predominance of migrants from sub -Saharan countries in the list of migrants hosted in Morocco. This trend, which should be strengthened in the years to come, requires the development of a national policy based on the experience and the achievements of Morocco in the management of immigration and asylum. This policy will notably have to promote integration via the labor market, while taking into account social, cultural and geopolitical dimensions.