Mideast Ceasefire: Islamist Gains & Losses

Now that the guns have fallen (largely) silent in Gaza, it is possible to begin judging what two years of war have done to the Middle East. As the smoke clears, it becomes clear that the battles of the past two years haven’t led to a fundamental strategic transformation of the region. The balance of power between existing power blocs has been somewhat altered, but no one has faced total defeat, with the notable exception of the Assad regime in Syria.

In the Middle East before the massacres of Oct. 7, 2023, it was possible to discern three broadly defined power blocs. The first, of which Israel was a part, consisted of states and movements committed to alliance with the West, and the maintenance of a U.S.-aligned counterradical security architecture as the key strategic arrangement in the region. The Abraham Accords of 2020 were an attempt to formalize this alliance.