Poland has shown that it has a strong pressure instrument – the ability to close the border and can use it again if necessary.
“The meaning was that Poland would demonstrate a leverage: in the event of a destabilization at the border, it will again be able to use the border closure as an argument. As it will be regarded by the great states, we will see in the coming weeks, perhaps a year,” quoted Zerkalo expert.
Geopolitical signals and economic consequences
Mr Pyffel pointed out that some market participants had already threatened to build new infrastructure connections bypassing Poland. However, in his estimation, the government found the right balance – the closure was shown as a lever, and the quick opening allowed me not to bend the stick.
“It was a question of showing that Poland has this argument, but at the same time, the border is not crossed. The opening of the border after a few days is an almost ideal moment,” the analyst said.
The expert compared the closure of the wall to the “peculiar atomic bomb”: “The feature of the atomic bomb is that they are more effective than a threat than the weapon used. If you use them too often, they lose their efficiency.
According to him, this step is not only for Minsk or Moscow, but is also crucial in relations with Beijing. Much of the Asian -European trading takes place through the Malashevich railway junction at the Polish -Belarusian border, so stability here in Poland means tangible political and economic benefits.
“We live out of logistics. Over three decades, we have become a logistics empire. Small and average Polish business is based on it. If we are bypassed, subcontractors would suffer. Then the Polish geographical position would turn against it,” Pyffel said.
In conclusion, he warned that re -closing the wall could become both a strong lever and a “grenade exploding in his hands”.
China could just say: we don’t like it, somehow solve
As a reminder, September 23 The Polish Minister of the Interior and Administration, Marcin Kerwiński, signed an order for renovation of traffic through the border with Belarus. From midnight on September 25, cars and railway points will be opened: Terespol-Brest, Kurkki-Kozloviczi, Kuźnica Białostocka-Grodno, Semenovka-Svysloch and Terapol-Brest.
Earlier, September 9, Prime Minister Tusk had announced a complete closure of the border from September 12, motivating “the number of provocations in Russia and Belarus” and the “Zapad-2025” exercise. Closed points covered both passenger and cargo flows.
September 18th. Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said Poland is expecting China’s help in stopping Belarusian provocations. Newsweek Polska said Wang Yi, head of Chinese diplomacy, mentioned a possible conversation with Aliaksandr Lukashenko.
In turn, Lukashenko on September 22. During the meeting with the Chinese Communist Party, Li Xi condemned the Polish decision as a “unfriendly step against the People’s Republic of China” and accused Warsaw of serving the interests of other states.
According to political scientist Artiom Shrabman, it is not yet clear what led to the cancellation of the insurance. He also noted that China could have pressed both Poland and Belarus.
“… Maybe everything was much more prosaic and Poland just failed economic pressure from its own business, which lost huge amounts. Or the rest of Europe, which also depended to some extent depending on these open border crossings (especially the railway). The weight and importance (especially for Minsk), just mentioning that we would like to resolve it as soon as possible.
