Thailand’s fuel subsidy fund plunged deeper into deficit, exceeding 62 billion baht as Middle East tensions kept global oil prices elevated and national reserves stood at 112 days of supply.
The Energy Ministry reported the shortfall had widened to 62,062.06 million baht by April 22, 2026, requiring a daily subsidy of 31.62 million baht to stabilize diesel prices. This comes as the International Energy Agency warned the conflict between Israel, the United States, and Iran — coupled with the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz — has triggered the largest supply shock in history, removing over 12 million barrels per day from global markets.
Unlike past crises, the disruption extends beyond crude oil to liquefied natural gas, refined fuels, and fertilizers, exposing systemic fragility in interconnected energy chains. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil and gas transit, remains a flashpoint despite a temporary ceasefire, with Iranian naval actions and U.S. seizures of vessels sustaining volatility.
In the United Kingdom and United States, soaring fuel prices have sparked a surge in fuel theft, including “drive-offs” at pumps and siphoning from vehicle tanks. Forecourt Eye recorded UK gasoline prices jumping from £1.03 per liter to £1.72, directly correlating with rising crime at forecourts.
Thailand’s buffer remains adequate for now, but officials concede the situation hinges on unpredictable diplomatic outcomes. The last time regional tensions strained global energy supplies to this degree was during the 2022 European gas crisis triggered by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
How the Strait of Hormuz became the epicenter of a multi-fuel crisis
The Strait of Hormuz, a 21-mile-wide chokepoint between Oman and Iran, carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas. Its disruption affects not just crude but also propane, butane, and diesel derivatives, amplifying the shock across sectors. Analysts note this integration means a single blockade can now impair fertilizer production, industrial operations, and home heating simultaneously — a vulnerability less pronounced in prior decades.
Why Thailand’s fuel subsidy fund keeps falling despite stable reserves
The deficit grows because the government continues to subsidize diesel to shield consumers from global price spikes, even as physical supplies remain sufficient. The fund’s negative balance reflects accounting for future liabilities, not immediate shortages. As long as international benchmarks like WTI crude remain elevated — WTI closed up 2% on April 21 — the state must cover the gap between regulated pump prices and actual import costs.
What fuel theft trends reveal about the human toll of energy inflation
In both the U.S. and UK, rising pump prices have translated into measurable increases in property crime at gas stations. While not violent, these acts signal strain on household budgets, particularly among rural and low-income drivers who depend on personal vehicles. Authorities in Nottinghamshire and Texas have reported localized spikes, though national agencies caution against conflating economic stress with organized criminality.
How much is Thailand’s fuel subsidy deficit in U.S. dollars?
The 62,062.06 million baht deficit equals approximately $1.78 billion, based on an exchange rate of 34.8 baht per dollar.
Can Thailand’s 112-day fuel reserve last if Hormuz stays closed?
Yes, the reserve is sufficient for nearly four months at current consumption levels, assuming no sudden surge in demand or further supply disruptions beyond those already priced into the market.
Is the Strait of Hormuz currently open or closed?
Transit through the Strait remains impaired but not fully closed; ships continue to pass under heightened risk, with insurance premiums and naval escorts reflecting ongoing instability despite the U.S.-Iran ceasefire.
