The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, has become an unexpected chokepoint in the global food supply chain, with over 90% of maritime fertilizer traffic disrupted as of April 2026.
This disruption is not merely a shipping delay but a cascading threat to agricultural production worldwide, particularly for nitrogen-based fertilizers like urea, nearly half of which originates in the Gulf region. The bottleneck comes at a critical juncture: planting season is underway across much of the Northern Hemisphere and imminent in many Southern Hemisphere regions, meaning delays now will echo through harvests months later.
The United Nations Development Programme warns that the confluence of rising energy costs and fertilizer shortages could push up to 30 million people into poverty, triggering a new food crisis with direct impacts on prices and access. This assessment is echoed by the World Bank, which recorded a nearly 46% month-on-month surge in urea prices between February and March 2026.
Beyond urea, the Gulf supplies close to 45% of global sulfur exports — a byproduct of fossil fuel refining essential for phosphate fertilizers. As noted by Barnaby Pace of the Center for International Environmental Law, the fertilizer industry absorbs about 60% of global sulfur demand, making this a silent but vital link in the agricultural chain.
The impact is uneven. Farmers in the Southern Hemisphere, who rely on fertilizer applications between August and October, face urgent shortages, while Northern Hemisphere producers have more lead time before needing inputs for next year’s crops. The World Farmers’ Organization projects a potential 15% decline in global food production next year if fertilizer trade remains disrupted, citing a direct correlation: a 30% drop in fertilizer availability could reduce grain yields by 12.5% to 15%.
Yet, for now, global grain reserves remain substantial, keeping benchmark prices low and alleviating immediate fears of acute hunger. The real danger lies in future planting decisions: as farmers weigh what to cultivate for the coming season, many may shift away from fertilizer-intensive crops like maize, wheat, and rice toward legumes such as soybeans — particularly in Argentina and Brazil — or expand pastureland for livestock, though such shifts require long-term investment.
Alternatives are scarce. As Arnold Puech d’Alissac of the World Farmers’ Organization observes, the options to replace synthetic fertilizers are limited, leaving producers vulnerable to shrinking margins or losses if input costs remain high.
How does the Strait of Hormuz disruption affect fertilizer availability beyond just shipping delays?
The blockade increases transportation costs, raises prices, and delays deliveries during a critical agricultural window, with effects persisting for months even if traffic normalizes immediately, due to the timing of planting seasons.
Why are Southern Hemisphere farmers more immediately affected than those in the North?
Southern Hemisphere farmers require fertilizers for application between August and October, creating urgent near-term demand, while Northern Hemisphere producers typically apply inputs later, giving them more time to adapt to delayed shipments.
