The India Meteorological Department declared the official onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala on Thursday, June 4, 2026. Arriving three days after the typical June 1 start, the rains bring critical relief to the region while signaling the start of a season forecasted to have below-normal rainfall.
The Three-Day Delay and Kerala’s Orange Alert
The arrival of the monsoon comes after a period of significant anticipation and shifting forecasts. While the IMD had initially predicted an early onset around May 26, changing atmospheric conditions slowed the progress of the rain-bearing clouds. According to India Today, the weather agency eventually revised its outlook to June 4, the date the official declaration was finally made.
The onset was triggered by a combination of strengthening westerly winds—extending up to 4.5 kilometres above sea level—and increased cloud cover over the southeast Arabian Sea. This atmospheric shift has already translated into heavy rainfall across Kerala, with the IMD issuing an orange alert for the districts of Ernakulam, Kottayam, and Alappuzha. Residents in these areas are warned of thunderstorms and surface winds reaching speeds of up to 40 kmph.
The monsoon’s reach currently extends beyond Kerala’s coast. The IMD reports that the system has advanced into the Lakshadweep islands, parts of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, the Comorin area, and various sectors of the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.
A Deficient Outlook for a $4 Trillion Economy
While the rains have arrived, the volume of water expected this year is a cause for concern. The monsoon is the lifeblood of India’s nearly $4 trillion economy, providing approximately 70% of the rainfall necessary to replenish reservoirs and aquifers. As Telegraph India reports, these rains are essential for the planting of critical crops including sugarcane, soybeans, cotton, corn, and rice.
The forecast for 2026 is sobering. The IMD expects seasonal rainfall to hover around 90% of the long-period average (LPA). Based on historical data from 1971 to 2020, the seasonal LPA is 87 cm. Under IMD classifications, any season that yields less than 90% of this average is categorized as deficient.
This projected deficiency has raised alarms regarding food prices and overall economic growth, with some forecasts suggesting this could be the lowest rainfall seen in 11 years.
El Nino’s Influence on Seasonal Rainfall
The primary driver behind the expected rainfall deficit is the shifting state of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). As reported by The Times of India, neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are gradually transitioning toward El Nino conditions.
Meteorologists anticipate that while El Nino conditions will remain weak throughout June, they could strengthen to moderate or strong levels by September. This pattern typically suppresses monsoon activity, leading to the “below-normal” outlook provided by the weather department.
The impact of the onset is already visible in neighboring regions. In Tamil Nadu, Coimbatore witnessed significant showers on June 3. By 7:30 a.m. on June 4, the district recorded a total rainfall of 215 mm, with an average of 9.35 mm. According to
| Location | Rainfall (mm) |
|---|---|
| Chinnakalar | 59 |
| Cincona | 45 |
| Sholayar | 33 |
| Valparai PAP | 29 |
| Valparai Taluk | 24 |
Heatwave Relief in Telangana and the Road to North India
As the monsoon begins its northward trek, other regions are finally seeing a break from extreme temperatures. In Telangana, the IMD has officially withdrawn heatwave alerts after weeks of grueling conditions. The state had been struggling with intense heat since mid-May, particularly in the eastern and northern districts.
“From around the 20th of May, Telangana state has been experiencing very high temperatures, particularly in the North Telangana and East Telangana districts.
Srinivas noted that evolving synoptic situations over the last few days have caused temperatures to subside, allowing the weather office to lift the alerts.
The focus now shifts to the timeline for the rest of the country. The monsoon typically moves steadily along the west coast and through the Northeast. Central India, including Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, is expected to see the rains by mid-June.
North India remains the final frontier. Delhi usually receives its first monsoon rains around June 27. Most of the northwest—including Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, and western Uttar Pradesh—is typically covered by the end of June or the first week of July. If current atmospheric conditions remain favorable, the relief from the summer heat is expected to reach these northern states by early July.
