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McFaul: Putin Won’t Negotiate Seriously Until stopped on Battlefield
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🔶DATELINELOCATION – According to Michael McFaul, former U.S. Ambassador to Russia, Vladimir Putin’s ultimate goal remains the subjugation of Ukraine, and serious negotiations will only occur when Russian forces are decisively halted on the battlefield.
In an August 18 YouTube conversation with Katie Couric, mcfaul, a Russian expert and stanford University professor, shared his insights on the Ukraine war, Putin’s relationship with President Trump, and the future of NATO, the European Union, and the United States.
McFaul highlighted the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine, noting that fighting is concentrated in four regions, partially occupied by russian forces. These regions include Donetsk and Luhansk, forming the Donbas, where Russia controls all of Luhansk and 75% of Donetsk. Additionally, Russia holds approximately 70% of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
He recalled that “Two years ago Putin held a big ceremony where he said these new four regions are now part of the Russian Federation in addition to Crimea, which he annexed back in 2014…So five regions of Russia, five states if you will of the Ukrainian country Putin has already, you know, annexed.”
However, McFaul clarified that despite the Kremlin’s claims, “de facto on the ground in reality he doesn’t control any of those places 100%.”
McFaul emphasized the Donbas region’s significance, stating, “The Donbas is rich in minerals.It’s the industrial base of the country. So I think it’s like eight or nine percent of the [Ukraine] population…but it’s more like 15 percent of the GDP [gross national product] of the entire country. So it would be a tremendous loss to Ukraine.” He also noted the displacement of hundreds of thousands of ukrainians from the region since 2014.
Trump, Putin, and the Donbas
McFaul connected the Donbas situation to a meeting between Trump and putin in Alaska, where Putin reportedly asked Trump to convince Zelensky to cede the Donbas region in exchange for a ceasefire in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.McFaul said, “We never really got a good readout from what happened in Alaska, but to the best of our understanding, what Putin asked for in Alaska, pretty audacious. He said, Donbas, that’s two of those regions, right? That’s up in the northwest corner, northeast corner. He said,Mr. President, convince Zelensky to leave Donbas.”
McFaul added, “That’s his offer.And the Ukrainians, you know, I talked to many Ukrainians afterwards. I mean,this is nonsense from them. The idea that they would give up territory that hasn’t even been conquered is just a non-starter. But that’s what Putin asked for.”
While Zelensky has not stated it directly, McFaul speculated that Ukraine might be willing to concede Crimea and small sections of the Donbas occupied since 2014, seeking reunification through peaceful means. He said, “I think the part [of Ukraine] that was occupied as 2014 [Crimea, small sections of the Donbas] is a part that Ukrainian people and president Zelensky could live with giving up.Again, I want to stress, they’re not going to recognize it as part of Russia, but they could recognize that they will only seek reunification through peaceful means.”
McFaul stressed the need for security guarantees from the West in return, stating, “But they’re only going to do that if they have some guarantee from the West that by doing that they get something in return for their security. And so when you hear this phrase ‘land for peace,’ the Ukrainians keep saying, well, yeah, you guys keep asking us for land, but you never say what the peace part is.”
Putin’s View of History and Trump’s Gullibility
mcfaul described Putin as “an effective interlocutor” who often dominates conversations with past narratives. he recalled one meeting where “In one meeting with Obama,he [Putin] went on for 58 minutes in the beginning of the meeting before President obama even had the chance to speak.”
McFaul also addressed the relationship between putin and Trump, suggesting that Putin views Trump as a weak leader easily swayed by praise and misinformation. Couric asked McFaul, “Do you think that Donald Trump is being played by Putin?”
McFaul answered: “Honestly, I think he [Putin] thinks of trump as being just a really weak leader and with a little bit of praise and a little bit of, you know, repeating things that are false that Trump wants to hear, he can win him over.”
He cited Putin’s claim to Trump that the 2020 U.S. election was rigged due to mail-in voting as an example. McFaul said, “So in Alaska, Putin said, ‘I would have never invaded Ukraine had you been president.’ And that’s exactly what Trump wanted to hear.”
McFaul expressed disbelief at Trump’s acceptance of Putin’s claims, stating, “I just listened to the President [Trump] talk about that [Putin’s view of the 2020 election], and I just can’t believe that he [Trump] would be so gullible. Honestly, I guess I should get used to it by now. But what an absurd thing for him [Putin] to claim…How does Putin know that that happened [in the 2020 election]? And no credible American association, no investigative journalists have uncovered that. But somehow mysteriously the president of Russia knows that it was stolen as there was mail-in voting. And yet the President [Trump] just repeated that and that’s how Putin has won him over.”
McFaul’s Hopes for the Future
McFaul outlined two key hopes for the future: a security guarantee for Ukraine involving European soldiers deployed on Ukrainian territory and the transfer of approximately $300 billion in frozen Russian assets to Ukraine for reconstruction. He said one thing he hoped for was “the security guarantee that we’ve been talking about where European soldiers are deployed on Ukrainian territory to help keep the peace. Peacekeepers, you know, tripwire. I don’t really like that word tripwire,but where they’re there to just keep that border,right?… And you go up to the border and you see all the soldiers there and you see the barbed wire that keeps the peace.”
Regarding the frozen assets, McFaul said, “The next move, those assets have to be given to Ukraine. Americans don’t want to pay for reconstruction. Europeans don’t want to pay for it. That’s money is sitting right there.”
McFaul concluded by emphasizing the importance of NATO as a peacekeeping alliance, stating, “Referring to the NATO allies at the White House with Zelensky, McFaul said it should “remind everybody that Moscow, neither the Soviets or the Russians, have never attacked a NATO country. So NATO expansion has helped to keep the peace especially in places like the Baltic states. But also NATO has never attacked the Soviet Union or Russia. And so we shouldn’t buy into this argument that it’s a threat to Russia. it’s not a threat to russia…We have to think about NATO as an alliance that preserves the peace rather than causes conflict.”
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