The Cuban regime is going through one of the most fragile moments in its recent history and, according to the renowned analyst and expert in Latin America, Charles Malamudthe political system that has governed the island since 1959 may not survive beyond the next few years.
Beyond the economic and social collapse visible in the daily lives of Cubans, the specialist pointed to two less discussed factors, but key to understanding the current moment: lThe adaptation of power elites to survive an eventual change y the possibility of any transition arising from within the system itself.
In an article published in The WorldMalamud described a country in deep deterioration, marked by prolonged blackouts, fuel shortages, shortages of food and medicine, and the deterioration of basic services such as healthcare or garbage collection.
However, the most striking contrast he warned is between the situation of the population and the standard of living of those who make up the political, military and economic leadership of the country.
According to the expert, while a large part of Cuban society faces survival conditions, the elites linked to power maintain privileged access to goods and services, visible in exclusive neighborhoods, electric vehicles and their own energy systems.
In many cases, furthermore, these elites have found a way of economic adaptation through indirect control of micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs)a sector that has grown in recent years on the island.
The phenomenon reveals a silent transformation within the Cuban model. For decades, official discourse condemned any form of private initiative as a source of inequality. Today, however, numerous businesses operate thanks to family or political connections with figures from the establishment.
For some analysts, this process could be interpreted as an attempt by sectors of power to ensure their economic position in a possible scenario after the current system.
In political transition processes, especially after long periods of authoritarian power, it is relatively common for sectors of the ruling elites to try to adapt to the new scenario even before the change occurs.
In different Eastern European countries after the fall of the Soviet bloc or in some Latin American transitions, political, military or business leaders linked to power sought to reconvert economically or politically to preserve influence within the new system.
These types of movements usually include the accumulation of assets, the control of emerging sectors of the economy or the establishment of business networks that allow former cadres of the regime to maintain relevant positions even after a political transformation.
This behavior is not strange in contexts of political transition. In different countries with prolonged authoritarian systems, part of the ruling elites have sought to reconvert economically before structural changes, preserving power and influence within new rules of the game.
In the Cuban case, the expansion of MSMEs linked to circles close to power has raised questions about who could dominate the economic fabric if a greater opening were to occur.
At the same time, Malamud proposed another scenario that is gaining strength among international observers: the possibility that any political transformation does not initially come from the traditional opposition, but from internal sectors of the regime itself.
In that sense, the analyst echoed information published by US media, which points to alleged exploratory contacts between actors close to Cuban power and the president’s administration. Donald Trump to evaluate possible scenarios of political change on the island. Trump himself and several officials in his administration have affirmed the existence of such contacts.
The logic behind this approach responds to a geopolitical calculation. An abrupt transition could generate internal instability and a new immigration crisis towards the United States, especially towards Florida.
For this reason, some strategists consider a gradual transformation driven by figures with experience within the system and the ability to maintain some institutional control during the process to be more viable.
The unknown, however, lies in Who could take on that role?. Among the hypotheses circulating in academic and diplomatic circles are mentioned, ranging from military figures with weight within power structures to civilian leaders with broader international networks.
Even some analysts do not rule out that sectors linked to the Castro family itself may try to influence any process of reorganization of the power that they have held in a violent and illegitimate manner for more than 67 years.
What seems increasingly evident, according to Malamud, is that the political and economic model built over decades shows signs of deep exhaustion. The combination of economic crisis, growing inequality and international pressure has created a scenario that many describe as a true end of the cycle.
In this context, the great unknown is not only when a change could occur in Cuba, but also who will lead it and to what extent the current power elites will manage to adapt to the new stage that will eventually open for the island.