- WTI Beer – WKN: 792451 – ISIN: XC0007924514 – Kurs: 91,381 $/bbl. (JFD Brokers)
Iranian President Pezeshkian, under pressure from hardliners, is vacillating between apologies to Arab neighbors and new threats against US targets, revealing his weak power base vis-à-vis the Revolutionary Guard. At the same time, the global economic situation is worsening as Kuwait has had to reduce its oil production due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. While Iran is betting on a war of attrition to maximize inflation, the US and Israel are reportedly already considering using special forces to secure Iranian nuclear materials.
As long as the Strait of Hormuz is closed, this will put pressure on the stock markets.
Full copy of the analysis and forecast from September 2nd last year as a PLUS article:
Ölpreis (WTI) im Big Picture – Brisante Situation! – 21:56 Uhr, 02.09.2025
The ongoing conflicts between Russia and Ukraine are supporting prices, as drone attacks on large refineries in Russia (approx. 17% of capacity) are leading to supply fears. At the same time, US policy is putting pressure on India’s oil imports from Russia in order to further curb Russian oil exports. Despite some rapprochements in the Middle East and possible tendencies towards détente, geopolitics and sanctions (against Russia, Iran, Venezuela) remain key influencing factors:
Technically, the correction phase in oil has been intact since May 2022! Especially the last phase that can be clearly defined upwards since September 2023, see the capping barrier line (shown in red dashed lines). As long as oil is below it, the correction is intact. And yes, during correction phases, the more active investor tries to remain as vulnerable as possible with positions in the relevant market. The key cluster is still at $80 in the market! If the oil price (WTI) rises convincingly above USD 80 based on the weekly closing price, this activates a medium-term (several weeks to several months) buy signal with projection targets at 85, 103 and later even 118 USD.
Wait patiently. It is only a matter of time before the outbreak begins. I know that. What I currently don’t know is which topic will trigger the increase.
Oil price (WTI) – medium-term forecast sketch as a graphic snapshot – chart analysis & trading – 1 candle = 1 week
Chart for you to save and run with. As a comparison. According to my statistical model, the forecast arrows tend to roughly visualize the expected progression towards the upward projection targets or downward correction targets. In other words, they tend to roughly visualize my forecast.
