Economic Warfare: Tariffs and Trade Restrictions

Since January 20th, the Trump management has aggressively pursued a strategy of economic pressure, imposing cumulative tariffs reaching 145% on Chinese goods. This began with reciprocal tariffs, mirroring China’s initial measures, and has evolved into a tit-for-tat escalation. For example, when China raised tariffs on US goods to 125% in response to earlier US actions, the Trump administration retaliated by announcing new fees on Chinese shipping companies operating in US ports, effective October 14th.

This aggressive trade policy comes at a time when global trade is already facing important headwinds. According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), global trade growth is projected to slow to 1% in 2025, down from 2.7% in 2024, due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions.

Beyond Trade: Targeting Strategic Industries

The US is also targeting key Chinese industries beyond trade. The military sector, particularly shipbuilding and shipping, is now in the crosshairs. Furthermore, the administration has tightened export controls on high-tech goods, restricting the sale of advanced AI semiconductors from companies like NVIDIA to China. This move aims to curb China’s technological advancement and maintain US dominance in critical sectors.

The COVID-19 Origins Controversy

Adding another layer of complexity, the White House has publicly amplified the “lab leak” theory regarding the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting the virus originated from the Wuhan Institute of Virology. This stance, prominently displayed on the White house website, is a significant escalation, especially given the ongoing debate within the US intelligence community about the virus’s origins.

The COVID-19 origin issue is particularly sensitive for the Chinese government.In the past, China has responded defensively to calls for an examination, even imposing trade restrictions on countries like Australia that publicly demanded an inquiry. This makes the US government’s official endorsement of the “lab leak” theory a potential flashpoint in the already strained relationship.

For Corona 19, which first spread in Wuhan, China in early 2020, the Chinese government insisted on ‘overseas inflow’ to its own people, while prohibiting imports of coal, beef, and wine for Australia, which publicly demanded the 19th Investigation of Corona.

Negotiation Tactics or Genuine Conflict?

Despite the escalating tensions, President Trump has expressed optimism about potential negotiations with China. This raises the question of whether these aggressive measures are a calculated tactic to gain leverage before negotiations, a strategy familiar to observers of the Trump administration. However, some analysts believe that these actions are driven by a genuine desire to contain China’s growing influence and address long-standing grievances.

Diplomats on both sides are wary of a full-blown economic conflict, recognizing the potential for catastrophic consequences. While China has implemented retaliatory measures, including tariffs and export controls on rare earth minerals and US liquefied natural gas (LNG), both nations ideally seek a resolution through dialog.

Summit as a Potential Solution?

While President Trump anticipates trade negotiations concluding within weeks, the deep-seated issues and mutual distrust could prolong the conflict. If the dispute expands beyond trade,a high-level summit between President Trump and President Xi Jinping might be necessary to reach a broader political agreement. though, the current climate of animosity and the potential for miscalculation could jeopardize such a summit and its potential for success.

President Trump said he believes that trade negotiations with China will be concluded in the next three to four weeks, but if the pride fight between the two sides will be longer and the conflict is expanded to other sectors other than trade, it is indeed expected that the ‘political conclusion’ in a large framework through the summit will be injured as a solution.