Rising Logistics Costs: A Looming Threat to Global Commerce

The XIV International Congress of Supply Chain and Logistics is set to address critical challenges facing the global movement of goods. A primary concern is the escalating cost of logistics,influenced by a complex interplay of factors including trade wars,geopolitical instability,and internal infrastructural shortcomings.These issues are creating important headwinds for businesses worldwide, perhaps impacting consumer prices and economic growth.

Maritime Transport Turbulence: Navigating Tariffs and Geopolitical Risks

The maritime sector is especially vulnerable. A confluence of factors, including tariffs imposed amidst trade disputes, ongoing conflicts in regions like Gaza and Ukraine, the volatile situation in the Red Sea, and persistent port congestion, are all contributing to increased costs and operational complexities. Reconfigured maritime alliances further exacerbate the uncertainty.

While current container freight rates appear relatively stable, experts warn against complacency. According to Drewry, the average freight rate for a 40-foot container currently sits at US $2,076. While this is significantly lower than the US $5,000 peaks observed in 2024, the underlying pressures of the trade war could trigger renewed volatility.

The pressures of the commercial war can result in possible impacts such as reconfiguration of maritime routes due to volume reduction; uncertainty in inventory management; increases in costs and logistics complexity, and volatility in freight rates.

These pressures could lead to a restructuring of shipping routes as trade volumes shift, creating uncertainty in inventory management and ultimately driving up costs and logistical complexity. The imposition of specific tariffs on logistics, particularly between major players like the United States and China, adds another layer of complexity. For instance, tariffs and other fees levied on ship operators using vessels built in China, based on net tonnage or container capacity, directly impact shipping costs.

China’s dominance in shipbuilding further underscores its influence on global logistics. The nation accounts for a staggering 32% of the global floating fleet and is home to seven of the world’s ten largest shipping companies, giving it significant leverage in shaping the future of maritime trade.

Air Transport Under Pressure: Capacity Constraints and Supply Chain Delays

The air transport sector faces its own set of challenges. Limited capacity in 2025 is a major concern, driven by the continued surge in e-commerce and direct-to-consumer shipping. This increased demand for air freight is colliding wiht persistent supply chain bottlenecks, particularly delays in the delivery of new aircraft. These delays hinder airlines’ ability to modernize their fleets and improve efficiency, further straining capacity and potentially driving up air freight rates.

Land Transport Lags: Internal Challenges Hamper Efficiency

While maritime and air transport grapple with global issues, land transport faces significant internal challenges. A lack of progress in developing multimodal transport infrastructure and persistent complications within the land transport network are hindering efficiency and driving up costs. This is particularly concerning as logistics costs in some regions already represent a substantial portion of the final product value.

Not in vain logistics costs represent 17.9% of the value of the final product, and could increase to 20% or 22% with the proposed modifications. This would put the country at a disadvantage in front of OECD countries, which have average logistics costs of 8%.

For exmaple, in some countries, logistics costs account for nearly 18% of the final product price, a figure that could rise to over 20% with proposed regulatory changes.This starkly contrasts with the average logistics costs of just 8% in OECD countries, placing these nations at a significant competitive disadvantage.

addressing the Bottlenecks: A Call for Action

To mitigate these challenges and enhance competitiveness in foreign trade, it is indeed crucial to address issues such as streamlining logistics and operational hours, simplifying customs procedures, and ensuring consistent compliance with international trade agreements. Failure to address these bottlenecks will further exacerbate the rising costs of logistics and undermine global trade efficiency.