Tesla Shares: Growth Concerns – Börse Express

Tesla delivers weak numbers, but the stock market still reacts with price gains. While the core business with electric cars is visibly losing momentum, many investors are increasingly turning to software, AI and robotics as the next source of income. The crucial question behind it: How big can the gap in the car business become before the future fantasy reaches its limits?

Weak deliveries, slowed growth story

The recently published delivery figures for the fourth quarter paint a clear picture: things are going significantly worse in the core business than Wall Street expected. Tesla delivered 418,227 vehicles in the final quarter, falling noticeably short of the approximately 440,000 units that analysts had expected. The backlog underlines the demand problems for a model portfolio that is now getting on in years.

A look at 2025 as a whole is also sobering. Tesla delivered around 1.64 million vehicles, around 9% less than the 1.8 million of the previous year. The year-long growth story of ever new delivery records has come to a standstill for the time being. Tesla has clearly moved away from the previous, almost explosive expansion course in the hardware business.

Important key figures at a glance:

• Q4 deliveries: 418,227 vehicles (well below consensus of ~440,000)
• Full year 2025: approx. 1.64 million vehicles (around 9% less than 2024)
• Market position: clearly overtaken by BYD in terms of volume

BYD passes by – symbolic change of power

Particularly painful for the perception of the brand: Tesla has lost the top spot in global sales of purely electric cars. Chinese competitor BYD reported around 2.26 million battery-electric vehicles for 2025, putting it well ahead of Tesla.

This change at the top is more than just a side note. It highlights the increased competition in the electric car market, especially outside the USA. While Tesla has only been making cautious changes to its core model range for years, competitors are entering the market with cheaper and more modern-looking models. The end of volume leadership directly undermines the narrative of hypergrowth and dominance in the EV sector that has been cultivated for years.

Europe as a problem area

The situation in Europe is particularly difficult. In the EU and UK, Tesla’s market share has shrunk to just 1.7%, according to current data. In important countries such as France, new registrations have fallen significantly. Critics point to a “stale” offering of Model 3 and Model Y, which has lost its appeal compared to new European and Chinese models.

In addition, there is a possible strain on the brand due to the public role of CEO Elon Musk. Analysts see its political positioning as a factor that may have deterred some European customers. As a result, Tesla reported a 16% year-on-year decline in sales in the December quarter – a clear indication that its image and product offering in Europe are under pressure.

Why Tesla shares are still rising

Despite these clearly negative fundamentals, the share price is currently increasing slightly. On Thursday, Tesla shares closed at $449.72. Although they are in the red for the week, they are still significantly positive over the course of twelve months. The fact that the price increases immediately after the delivery figures indicates a changed perspective among investors: Tesla is increasingly seen less as a pure car manufacturer on the stock market.

Instead, the focus is primarily on three topics:

• Expectations for the launch of “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) in Europe, currently targeted for February 2026
• Fantasy surrounding the humanoid robot program
• A “sell the rumor, buy the news” reaction, as a weak 2025 was already priced in in many cases

This means that the valuation focuses more on expected future software and AI revenues as well as robotics applications. The catch: The declining car sales are putting a strain on the very area that currently supplies the majority of the cash flow. The more the classic car business weakens, the more FSD, AI applications and robotics will actually have to deliver results in the coming years in order to justify the current valuation.

Conclusion and outlook

Tesla is at a turning point: the numbers are clearly pointing downwards, its market leadership is gone, and its position is noticeably crumbling, especially in Europe. At the same time, price losses are limited because a growing part of the market sees the stock primarily as an AI and robotics story. What will now be crucial is whether Tesla can convert the FSD plans in Europe and the robotics projects planned for 2026 into concrete, scalable sales in the foreseeable future – because the weaker car business leaves less and less room for disappointment.