Russia is the biggest winner of the conflict in the Middle East that began on February 28, said the Financial Times. The reason, the newspaper stated, is that Russian coffers are bringing in at least 150 million dollars a day just because of the rise in the price of oil.
The figure is higher if the additional income derived from higher prices for Russian natural gas and coal is added, which have also increased since the United States and Israel launched the first attacks against Iran on February 28. The Guardian He assured this Thursday that Russia obtained some $6.9 billion in additional income from fossil fuel exports between oil, gas and coal so far this month.
To date, Moscow has made an estimated windfall of between $1.3 billion and $1.9 billion thanks to taxes on oil exports, following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which sparked growing demand for Russian crude oil from India and China. The United States also eased its sanctions against Russia and its pressure on India not to buy Russian oil, causing a significant number of tankers to head to the Indian Ocean.
The data differ, but in any case they suggest that Russia will benefit economically from the war in the Middle East. The Guardianfor example, published yesterday that Russia has received six billion euros, about $6.9 billion, from the sale of its fossil fuels in the two weeks since the start of the war between the United States and Israel with Iran, according to data consulted by the publication.
Meanwhile, Financial Times published, also yesterday, that the Russian government could receive between 3.3 billion and 4.9 billion dollars in additional revenue by the end of March, according to calculations based on sector data and evaluations by several analysts.
Russian energy exports are subject to sanctions in the West, which were partially lifted yesterday by the United States (https://t.ly/y7REy).
The main buyers of Russian oil and coal have been China with 48 percent of oil and 43 percent of coal, India with 37 percent of oil and 20 percent of coal and Turkey with 6 percent of oil and 11 percent of coal and, in the case of natural gas, the European Union (EU) with 49 percent, China with 22 percent and Japan with 19 percent according to the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA by its acronym in English).
On February 27, a day before the start of the conflict, Russian Urals crude oil blend was trading at approximately $40 per barrel, but by March 10, shipments bound for India were selling for around $90. On Monday, March 9, the Urals closed at $100.67, while Brent, the world’s crude oil benchmark, closed at $99, reported Forbes. Russian oil, which is under sanctions, had never traded above the world reference price, demonstrating that the entire control system, built since 2022, was reversed in twelve days.
This represents a radical change in the situation for Moscow, which before the war with Iran was facing falling oil prices and the loss of most of its sales to India, largely due to pressure from Washington, according to Forbes.
Russian exports of crude oil and petroleum products plummeted 11.4 percent to 6.6 million barrels a day in February, their lowest level since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, according to a report from the International Energy Agency published on Thursday.
It will depend on how long the Middle East conflict lasts, but current high prices “will help Russia meet budget milestones this quarter and even start saving some money,” said Borys Dodonov, head of energy and climate studies at the Kyiv School of Economics, quoted by Forbes.
