Ethiopia’s Election: PM Abiy Expected to Secure Fifth Term as Prosperity Party Dominates

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Prosperity Party Dominance and the Path to Re-election

The political landscape in Ethiopia appears set to remain under the firm control of the ruling Prosperity Party (PP). As the nation moves toward a new legislative term, the party remains the overwhelming favorite to maintain its grip on power. This expectation is rooted in the party’s existing dominance; in the previous 2021 elections, the PP secured 96% of the seats in the House of Peoples’ Representatives. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who has held office since 2018, cast his own vote in the early hours of the morning in Beshasha, his hometown in the Oromia region. During his appearance, he suggested that the coming period would serve as a historical turning point focused on building a self-sufficient nation. However, his political trajectory has been complex. After an initial period of reform that earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019, his administration has faced increasing international criticism regarding authoritarianism and the suppression of dissent. Some analysts suggest the current electoral cycle lacks the competitive spirit seen in previous eras. According to RFI, a note from Chatham House on May 28 indicated that this process would be one of the least competitive elections since the establishment of multi-party politics in Ethiopia in 1991. The study suggested that such processes have increasingly served to reinforce the power of the government in office rather than facilitate true political competition.

Security Disruptions and the Tigray Exclusion

The election was not a uniform experience across the country’s vast territory. While 47 political parties officially participated in the contest, active ethnic tensions and armed conflicts prevented the vote from being implemented across the entire nation. In particular, clashes between the federal army and the Fano militia created significant volatility. Melatework Hailu, head of the electoral commission, reported that security incidents occurred at polling stations in the Oromia and Amhara regions, both of which have experienced instability. San Antonio Express-News reported that while voting resumed in many locations, it did not do so in all affected areas, leaving it unclear if all voters would have a second opportunity to cast their ballots. Perhaps most significant is the continued political isolation of the Tigray region. Once the center of a major armed conflict, Tigray chose not to participate in this election cycle. This decision effectively denies the region a voice in the federal Parliament, a situation that has persisted for six years and further marginalizes the territory following years of friction with the federal government.

International Observers Weigh in on Democratic Integrity

As the vote concluded, international monitoring bodies moved to consolidate their findings. The African Union (AU) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) held meetings to compare investigations conducted by their respective delegations during the election and the immediate post-election period. For the AU and IGAD, the stability of Ethiopia carries immense weight for the rest of the continent. Speciosa Wandira-Kazibwe, the former Vice President of Uganda representing IGAD, emphasized the geopolitical stakes of the process. “We are very interested in Ethiopia because it is the seat of Africa. We want peace here. We want everything to be peaceful so that we can move comfortably through Africa. Therefore, when we see them interested in peace in Ethiopia, because elections are very important for peace, we are very happy,” Speciosa Wandira-Kazibwe, former Vice President of Uganda Similarly, Prensa Latina reported that Uhuru Kenyatta, the former President of Kenya and head of the AU delegation, expressed optimism regarding the ongoing process. Kenyatta noted that the success of the election would resonate far beyond Ethiopia’s borders, serving as a vital exercise for democratic governance across Africa. “Voting is the exercise of citizens exercising their democratic rights to elect their representatives and leaders. Democracy is something we would like to consolidate in the African continent so that we have true representation, a sense of inclusion and the ability of people to choose the leaders of their choice,” Uhuru Kenyatta, former President of Kenya The scale of the participation was massive, with the National Election Board noting that women represented 46 percent of the more than 54 million people registered to vote.

Political Repression and the Voter Sentiment

Despite the official narrative of democratic consolidation, opposition groups have voiced deep concerns regarding a shrinking political space. Critics allege that they were prevented from campaigning effectively and have pointed to ongoing human rights abuses against journalists and government critics. The sense of disillusionment was palpable among some segments of the population. Noah Yesuf, a human rights defender, challenged the legitimacy of the proceedings. “The fairness of an election is judged by whether there is a level playing field for the opposition and an environment conducive to citizens participating freely,” Noah Yesuf, human rights defender This skepticism was echoed by individual voters who expressed a mix of civic duty and profound uncertainty about the future. While many stood in long lines to fulfill their obligations, the expectation of meaningful change remained elusive for some. “I am not sure if my vote will bring the change I want and that will help change my way of life,” Senait Dereje, 37-year-old trader As the National Election Board of Ethiopia continues the process of vote counting and verification, the international community awaits the formal reports from the AU and IGAD to determine the true standing of Ethiopia’s democratic health.