A classified analysis by the US National Intelligence Council (NIC), completed about a week before the start of the Israeli-US strikes in Iran, concluded that even a large-scale offensive was unlikely to topple Iran’s theocratic regime and military. At the same time, the analysis evaluated the scenario in which the government would be taken over by the Iranian opposition as improbable. Citing three informed sources, the news daily The Washington Post wrote this today (WP).
The current war in the Middle East began with strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran on Saturday, February 28, when Iran’s supreme spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed. The attacked country launched military retaliation shortly after, launching missile and drone attacks on Israel and US bases and other targets in the Persian Gulf region.
The report, completed about a week before the United States and Israel launched the strikes, outlined possible succession scenarios, according to sources familiar with its findings. These could occur either in the case of a targeted campaign against Iran’s leaders or in a broader attack targeting the country’s political leadership and state institutions.
In both scenarios, the intelligence analysis concluded that Iran’s clerical and military establishment would respond to a possible Khamenei killing according to established procedures aimed at ensuring continuity of power, the sources said. The possibility of a fragmented Iranian opposition taking control of the country has been described as “unlikely”, according to sources. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity because it is a classified report.
