Tensions between Iran and the USA are growing. Meanwhile, Tehran is adding fuel to the fire. An expert explains the strategy behind it – and warns of the consequences. An analysis.
The timing makes it even more strange: On Wednesday, the US military shot down an Iranian drone – according to the US, it was moving dangerously close to an American aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea. This happened two days before planned talks between Iran and the USA.
Tensions between the two countries have been growing for weeks, and there has been repeated speculation about an imminent military strike by the USA on Iran. The talks, which, after some back and forth, are taking place on Friday not in Turkey but in Oman, are actually intended to bring calm. Above all, the American side is concerned with the Iranian nuclear program: The USA wants to prevent Iran from building a nuclear bomb.
Military strike against Iran? Drone flight was a provocation before nuclear talks with the USA on Friday
How does the drone approach to an American aircraft carrier fit into this precarious situation? “The Iranian regime wants to send two messages. Internally: ‘We are strong’. And externally: ‘We can also defend ourselves,'” explains Middle East expert Hans-Jakob Schindler, director of the Counter Extremism Project, in an interview with the Frankfurter Rundschau by Ippen.Media. In the tense situation, however, this is like playing with fire: “It has some suicidal tendencies. Or to put it another way: you have to ask whether they still have all their cups in the cupboard,” says Schindler. “Flying so close with a drone is clearly a provocation.”
Close to the time of the drone flight, Iranian boats also harassed a US tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. This is also a signal according to the motto: We can seriously disrupt the global energy supply. Almost all of Qatar’s liquid gas and a large part of Saudi Arabia’s oil exports are transported through the Strait of Hormuz. The action fits the general tactics of the Iranian leadership, says Schindler: “They are playing their usual game: delaying and threatening.”
The main actors are the Pasdaran, i.e. the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. “They have exclusive control over Iran’s drone and missile program and are also responsible for securing the Strait of Hormuz. These were targeted provocations by the Revolutionary Guard.” Now the leadership is ensuring that the negotiations on Friday are as complicated as possible. “First they change the location from Istanbul to Oman. Then they propose a strictly bilateral meeting without mediation by the Omanis. And announce that they explicitly do not want to talk about their missile program,” explains expert Schindler. “The regime is a master at negotiating in such a way that it never comes to a result.”
The regime’s hope: Trump will simply lose interest at some point, says Schindler: “But maybe he will also lose patience. Then there will be a military strike.” The delay tactic is also aimed at ensuring that Trump will not be president forever. “Any other president will be less willing to launch a military operation against Iran. The Democrats won’t anyway, and neither will someone like JD Vance, an isolationist who would scale back US foreign policy actions.” (Sources: expert discussion, own research, dpa)
