Iran says draft deal with US would reopen Hormuz shipping

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Terms of the Unofficial Framework

The emerging diplomatic architecture aims to de-escalate a conflict that began in February, utilizing indirect mediation led by Pakistan. While the framework remains unofficial and unfinalized, it outlines a specific exchange of concessions designed to stabilize global energy flows and reduce direct military friction. According to Iran’s state TV, the memorandum focuses heavily on maritime security and the withdrawal of forces. The draft stipulates that Iran would restore commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels within a single month. In exchange, the United States would lift its naval blockade and withdraw military forces from the immediate vicinity of Iran. Tehran has maintained that it will take no practical steps toward implementation without tangible verification that the US intends to honor the terms. If both nations reach a final agreement within a 60-day window, the deal could be codified through a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.

The Communication Crisis in Tehran

Despite the progress of these negotiations, a significant bottleneck has emerged within the Iranian leadership. The pace of diplomacy is currently hindered by difficulties in communicating with the nation’s highest authority. As BBC reported, US intelligence suggests that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is currently in an undisclosed location. This isolation follows an Israeli strike on the first day of the war that reportedly injured him and killed his father and predecessor. This lack of direct access to the Supreme Leader has made it difficult for his envoys to finalize the details of the memorandum, creating a period of uncertainty for the Pakistani mediators.

Military Brinkmanship and Regional Threats

While diplomats work through the framework, the Iranian military remains in a state of high alert. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has signaled that its willingness to negotiate does not equate to a lack of readiness for combat. Mohammad Akbarzadeh, deputy political chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, offered a dual-track assessment of the current tension. He noted that while the likelihood of returning to a state of active war is low due to what he described as the enemy’s weakness, the military remains prepared.

“war is low because of the enemy’s weakness, the armed forces are lying in wait with full magazines… the military will turn the area along Iran’s coastline into a graveyard for aggressors.”

For more on this story, see US strikes Iran after ceasefire, disrupting Hormuz Strait talks.

Mohammad Akbarzadeh, deputy political chief of the IRGC Navy, via Tasnim news agency The Iranian intelligence ministry has also heightened its rhetoric, alleging that the US and Israel are attempting to partition the country. The ministry claimed to have evidence of efforts to smuggle various weapons, ammunition and illegal communication tools, especially Starlink satellite devices into the country to trigger ethnic and religious unrest. This aggressive posture from Tehran meets a firm stance from Washington. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated on Tuesday that while a peace deal is within reach, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is a non-negotiable objective that will happen one way or the other.

Civilian Vulnerability on the Lebanese Front

As the US and Iran negotiate, the conflict continues to bleed into other regional fronts, most notably in Lebanon. The humanitarian situation is deteriorating as the war expands beyond the primary combat zones. The Israeli military has established a “yellow line” armistice boundary in southern Lebanon, a zone marked by concrete blocks. However, the movement of these boundaries and the intensity of raids have left local populations in a state of constant fear. In villages like Kfarchouba, residents find themselves in a precarious position, effectively serving as an unofficial buffer against Hezbollah. The threat of being targeted by airstrikes if any militant activity is detected in their vicinity has created a climate of terror for the elderly and displaced.

“If someone from Hezbollah comes and asks to put a rocket on my roof, I couldn’t refuse. How could I stop them?

al-El, 72-year-old retired sociology teacher, via The Guardian The divergence between the potential de-escalation in the Persian Gulf and the intensifying violence in Lebanon underscores the complexity of the current Middle East crisis. Even if the US-Iran memorandum succeeds, the regional stability remains contingent on whether the broader conflict can be contained.