Belarus Unlikely to Directly Engage in Russian War in Ukraine: Latvian Report Analyzes Political Stability and Influences
The involvement of Belarus in the Russian war in Ukraine in the coming years is improbable, according to a recent analysis by the Latvian Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB). The bureau’s report suggests that direct participation would jeopardize Belarus’s internal political stability and the rule of President Aleksandr Lukashenko.
Stability Through Repression
The SAB’s activity report for 2024 asserts that Lukashenko’s regime remains stable, mainly due to the suppression of political dissent and curtailment of freedom of expression within the country.
Increasing Russian Influence
At the same time, Belarus’ dependence on Russia and, consequently, Russia’s influence on Belarus continues increasing.
Russia continues to shape Belarus’s foreign policy, and Minsk actively seeks new cooperation partners and markets for its goods. Even with potential changes in leadership, SAB predicts that Russia’s influence will persist, influencing both foreign and domestic decisions in Belarus.
Government Control in Flurry of Elections
The parliamentary elections of 2024 and the presidential election of 2025 highlighted the regime’s firm grip on political power, demonstrating that the government maintains effective control over the country.
Opposition Faces Steep Challenges
While the opposition remains active, their reach is limited, partly due to the escalating repression by security agencies. Fear of arrest and long prison terms discourages many citizens from engaging in opposition activities.
Russia’s Role in Belarusian Integration
Latvian analysts observed increasing efforts by Russia to deepen Belarus’s integration into an allied state framework. A new integration plan for the period 2024-2026 may further escalate Russia’s control over both foreign and domestic policies of Belarus. However, the SAB suggests that Russia can achieve favorable decisions through bilateral agreements alone.
Risk of Direct Military Involvement
The involvement of Belarus in the Russian war against Ukraine is deemed unlikely in the near future. This assessment is based on the belief that direct participation could undermine domestic stability and jeopardize Lukashenko’s leadership, especially given the public’s strong opposition to such engagement.
Lukashenko’s Balancing Act
Lukashenko’s cooperation with Russia solidifies his presidential authority, allowing him to maintain power. However, he is increasingly concerned about the potential long-term risks associated with this alliance and seeks ways to reduce Belarus’s isolation from the West to counterbalance Russia’s influence.
About the Latvian Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB)
The SAB is one of Latvian state security institutions responsible for intelligence and counter-intelligence operations. It also safeguards classified information and facilitates the exchange of such information with international organizations.
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