Africa Forecasts 2024: Foreign Policy Predictions

In an analytical report, the American magazine Foreign Policy reviewed the most prominent files that are expected to shape the African scene in 2026, in light of overlapping political, security and electoral crises that may redraw the balance of power on the continent.

Decisive elections

The report indicated that several African countries will witness decisive elections, but experts expect them to be formal with predetermined results, which may open the door to a new wave of youth protests, similar to what the continent witnessed during the year 2025.

According to the report’s author, Nosmut Gbadamosi, the scheduled elections schedule for 2026 is as follows:

• General elections in Uganda, 15 January.
• Presidential elections in Benin, April 12.
• General elections in Ethiopia, 1 June.
• General elections in Zambia, August 13.
• Presidential elections in Gambia, December 5.
• General elections in South Sudan, December 22.

South Sudan

The elections of the Republic of South Sudan are the first since its independence in 2011. The elections have been postponed several times, and there are now widespread international and local doubts about the possibility of holding them or their integrity in light of the political turmoil in the country, according to the report.

The report explained that the state of South Sudan has entered a critical stage since the collapse of the fragile power-sharing agreement between President Salva Kiir Mayardit and his former deputy and opponent, Riek Machar.

In March 2025, Machar was placed under house arrest. The government charged him in September Charges of murder, treason and committing Crimes against humanityAnd he was dismissed from the position of first vice president in the unity government.

It is noteworthy that his position was part of the 2018 agreement between the two men, which ended a civil war that lasted 5 years and claimed the lives of about 400,000 people.

Recent developments have led to Salva Kiir assuming power, without real opposition, and for the country to stand on the brink of all-out civil war again, according to the magazine.

The report also warned of the possibility of conflict overlapping with Sudan, especially since the Sudanese army accuses Salva Kiir of supporting the Rapid Support Forces, which could turn South Sudan into a direct party in the Sudanese war.

Ethiopia

Regarding Ethiopia, the report indicated that the upcoming general elections come in light of an escalating security and economic crisis, with continued tension in the Amhara and Oromia regions, where confrontations continue between federal forces and local armed groups, which may hinder the voting process in large areas of the country.

The report pointed out that the elections may strengthen the government’s dominance, at a time when the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, the ruling party in Tigray, accuses the government of violating the peace agreement signed in 2022, which deepens the state of mistrust between the parties.

This fragile climate, according to the magazine, may lead to greater instability and fuel accusations of the illegitimacy of the elections and their results.

Somalia file

The report believes that Somalia’s elections may not succeed due to the controversy surrounding how they are conducted. There are electoral reforms that seek to move from the current system based on tribal sheikhs choosing members of parliament – who in turn elects the president – to a direct ballot system based on the principle of “one vote for every citizen.”

According to the magazine, this transformation is a radical change in the structure of power, and has raised widespread objections, especially from the semi-autonomous regions of Puntland and Jubbaland, which consider that the reforms strengthen the centralization of governance in Mogadishu and weaken the influence of the regions.

Open conflicts

In the Sahel and West Africa, the report warned of the spread of what it described as “the contagion of military coups,” in light of the expansion of the influence of the military councils in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger (the Sahel countries bloc), and the increasing attacks of armed groups linked to Al-Qaeda and ISIS.

In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the report indicated that the agreement supervised by the administration of US President Donald Trump did not succeed in containing the fighting in the east of the country, where confrontations continue with the Rwandan-backed M23 movement.

In Sudan, the report suggested that the war that has been ongoing for nearly three years is likely to continue, especially with the intensification of battles in the Kordofan region.

He pointed out that international initiatives, including those sponsored by Washington in cooperation with regional countries, have achieved little progress, due to the adherence of both sides of the conflict, the army and the Rapid Support Forces, to military resolution options.