If you want to look at the situation on the Ukrainian front, two levels have to be separated: first, what is really happening. Secondly, what is claimed about it from different sides – the USA, Ukraine, Russia. There is no shortage of allegations.
Trump and Kremlin see Ukraine losing
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US President Donald Trump recently said in an interview with “Politico” that his Ukrainian colleague Volodymyr Zelenskyy had to “pull himself together” and start “accepting things.” Because Ukraine is “losing” the war. From Russia, on the other hand, whose demands were initially largely taken over by the USA in a peace plan, there are a lot of striking reports of success these days.
One thing is clear: the more the USA creates the impression of an imminent Ukrainian defeat, the more they will use it as a means of exerting pressure on Ukraine in order to obtain concessions from Russia in the peace negotiations. Ukrainian representatives are now trying to portray the situation as difficult, but not hopeless.
Ukrainian commander emphasizes successes against Russia
This is what Oleh Hlushko, a battalion commander on the southeastern front, does. According to the Wall Street Journal, he said of the Russian army: “Occasionally they manage to raise their flags and claim that they have taken a position, but then we carry out purges, remove the symbols, and the position remains under our control.”
According to Hlushko, his men are usually able to take out the small Russian infantry units with which Russia attacks. But due to the enormous size of the enemy army, some managed to sneak past the Ukrainian positions.
Zelenskyj published a video via Telegram on Friday, which was also picked up on other social networks, and is said to show him in Kupyansk on the northern front. In November, the Russian army chief announced the encirclement of the city.
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Facts: Ukrainian problems and Russian losses
Nevertheless, it is clear that Ukraine has real problems on the battlefield. This is what all the expert assessments obtained by Tagesspiegel over the past few months indicate. There is a shortage of soldiers, which is particularly critical because the West cannot help here without directly participating in the war zu participate.
Russia, on the other hand, has more soldiers. Therefore, the invading army is steadily taking territory – although it is a small amount of land overall, although it is happening slowly and with heavy losses. In addition, the Russian army has expanded its drone warfare, meaning that the previous Ukrainian advantage has disappeared in some places.
If things continue like this, there will soon be a fall in the embattled front-line city of Pokrovsk and, in the indefinite future, a collapse of the Ukrainian army. Simply because Russia can hold out longer in the battle for resources.
Assessment: The front is still holding
But it is unlikely that the front will collapse any time soon. This is the conclusion reached by the experts at the US Institute for War Studies (ISW) in their current situation report. The ISW notes that Russian advances are limited to a few narrow sectors of the front and that Russian propaganda tries to simulate a broad offensive with exaggerated reports of success and small infiltration operations. Just as Russian leader Vladimir Putin would like. But if he had his way, his army would have taken Kiev in 2022 and forced Ukraine to surrender.
