Of the 28 points of Trump’s plan, only a few are extremely important for Putin, but Moscow will stick to them without stopping the advance of its army at the front.
No progress in the negotiations should be expected until the end of 2025. The so-called peace plan, which consisted of 28 points and was later finalized, will now be taken “for proofreading” to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. How realistic it is that everything that is happening will end with some result, Roman Kostenko, secretary of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence, and people’s deputy of the “Voice” faction, said in a conversation with an UNIAN correspondent.
According to foreign publications, US Presidential Special Envoy Steve Witkoff will hold talks in Moscow with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin to finalize the so-called peace plan. Ukraine is said to have rejected a proposal to withdraw Ukrainian troops from the part of the Donetsk region it now controls. How will these improvements be received in Moscow?
Ukraine’s withdrawal from Donbass and our state’s non-entry into NATO were Russia’s key demands. Out of 28 points, a maximum of 10 are extremely important, and, perhaps, on the fingers of one hand you can list those that are fundamental for Putin. Moreover, in conditions when the Russians see that they have the initiative in some areas of the front. Therefore, they are definitely not going to stop. These points are key for him.
There are many points in that peace agreement that are important for Ukraine, in particular, the sovereignty of Ukraine and the deployment of European fighters in Poland. There are many good points that I myself would include in our peace plan if I were involved in it. But there are key points regarding NATO, the territories that Putin will hold on to. This will be a reason not to end the war.
In peace terms, we are talking about Ukraine agreeing to enshrine in its Constitution that it will not join NATO, and NATO agreeing to include in its charters a provision that Ukraine will not be accepted in the future. How possible is a concession that Ukraine does not join NATO in exchange for other security guarantees for Ukraine?
This cannot even be discussed at the moment. Our Constitution states the state’s strategic course towards acquiring full membership of Ukraine in the European Union and NATO. Therefore, even if someone agreed to such concessions to Russia, it must be clearly understood that the Constitution cannot be changed during a war. That is, these norms must be “extracted” from the Constitution. But for this to happen, at a minimum, the war and martial law would have to end.
The question is also that even if this were possible for us, there is still Europe. For her, this point is also important; it is an encroachment on her sovereignty, because it turns out that it is not Europe, but Russia that will decide who should join NATO and who should not. This is already an attack on the sovereignty of Europe. Russia wants not only Ukraine to declare that it will not join NATO, but also the Alliance to promise that it will not accept Ukraine as a member. And neither Ukraine nor the Europeans like this. But this is an issue that is very important for Russia.
Is Putin generally interested in the negotiation process, given that the Russian army is making, albeit insignificant, progress in some areas of the front?
Looks like he’s not interested. Putin does not stoop to the battlefield. The generals report to him, saying that everything is fine with them and have allegedly already “captured” Kupyansk, “surrounded” Pokrovsk, and approached Konstantinovka. He doesn’t look at the fact that his losses are huge. The Russian dictator believes that everything is fine with him, so why should he make any concessions? Under these circumstances, he will consider any peace as concessions on his part.
Now is generally the worst time since the beginning of the war to conduct any negotiations. We can say that the worst since the summer of 2022. Because the situation at the front is not the best since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. Plus this scandal in Ukraine regarding corruption schemes in the energy industry. It influences the situation because some of its participants are negotiators in this process. And this certainly does not give us the opportunity to be more accommodating with our partners.
So why did we discuss this plan?
This question is not for me. Now there are a lot of questions about where this plan even came from. There is already a story that it was the Russians who handed it over to Vitkoff.
We have not yet recovered from the corruption scandal that rocked Ukrainian society. No one in power took responsibility. And then these 28 points were imposed on us. And immediately people went to negotiate, and they told us that we should not lose our dignity.
And now we also have to decide, at this not the best time for negotiations, whether to give up our territory or not.
Perhaps we got involved in the game to demonstrate that we are ready for negotiations, we will even make certain compromises – for example, we can reduce the army to 800 thousand, but we will not give up on the main thing. To demonstrate that Putin is not ready to negotiate?
Talk about the size of the army is not significant at all, including for Putin. 500 or 800 thousand – what does it matter to him? The question is deeper there. First, the peace plan talks about our sovereignty, and in the next ones they dictate to us what size should be in the Ukrainian army. We did not lose the war for someone to tell us what our army should be like and what Ukrainian territories we should give up.
The Witkoff scandal, in particular. Could the publication of his conversation with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s assistant Yuri Ushakov, from which it becomes clear that the US representative is playing into Russia’s hands, affect the so-called negotiation process?
Now the cards are all open. Everyone understands who plays for whom. This should have an impact, because the negotiators already understand which side and who exactly supports it more.
How much might this affect Trump’s position?
He had already commented on something there, saying that there was nothing wrong. Therefore, we must defend our interests ourselves. And Europe must understand that it must help us. As for US support, well, that’s how it goes. The question is whether we can convince them.
We are close to breaking down these negotiations. What then can we expect from the USA? Cutting off aid and failing to provide intelligence?
Anything can happen. We understand that if points of a peace agreement are imposed on Ukraine that do not suit us, we will not accept them. And the United States can repeat what happened six months ago, when data from American intelligence was not provided. But we definitely won’t give up. Our diplomats must do everything to show that we are ready for peace. But a worthy, correct and fair world. Not on the Russians’ terms.
That is, we can’t expect any results in the negotiation process until the end of 2025?
I don’t believe that we will agree on anything before the end of the year. Russia will play for time. They specifically inserted such clauses, including on territorial issues, so that there would be no agreements. Well, who will give up Donbass? What’s the point of stopping if their key issues aren’t met? This will be their loss, because they did not even occupy Donbass. It cannot be said that there will be a failure in the negotiations, but once again they will go to consult.
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Roman Kostenko
People’s Deputy of Ukraine, Secretary of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence
Roman Kostenko is a people’s deputy of Ukraine, secretary of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence.
From 2014 to 2019, he took an active part in military operations during the ATO/JFO.
Colonel of the SBU, held senior positions in the Special Operations Center “A” (“Alpha”) of the Security Service of Ukraine.
People’s Deputy of Ukraine from the “Voice” party.
