“One way or another we are going to have Greenland”, repeated Donald Trump, Sunday January 11, aboard Air Force One. “If we don’t take it, Russia or China will,” he added. A few days earlier, and only 48 hours after the kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, the American head of state had expressed his desire to acquire the Arctic island, attached to the Danish crown since the 19th century. “We need Greenland from a national security point of view, and Denmark will not be able to take care of it”he justified himself, reiterating his ambition already expressed several times since 2019.
The territory, four times the size of France, is in fact at the center of major geopolitical issues, the island being coveted by the United States, China and Russia. China in particular has linked the Northern Route, which is currently ice-free 10 months out of 12 and which should be 100% free within 25 years due to climate change, to its New Silk Roads, the colossal Chinese infrastructure project launched in 2013 and intended to connect China to the rest of the world. The Chinese presence in this polar region has therefore worried Donald Trump and more broadly the Republican Party for several years. Greenland also remains for the United States, with their Pitufik military base (former Thule base), a strategic location to monitor and prevent any Russian submarine activity.
Minerals, rare earths, hydrogen… Greenland, a highly coveted territory
An island full of rare earths
But beyond the security issues mentioned by Donald Trump, it would be the country’s subsoil that would attract American desire. And in particular its rare earth resources estimated at 36.1 million tonnes (Mt) by the National Geological Service of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS). But, in the same way that doubt hangs over the real oil reserves in Venezuela, many experts express their doubt about the potential for exploitation of these minerals.
“Greenland actually has 43 of the 50 critical raw materials deemed essential by the US government, but this is not a unique situation in the world. These minerals can be exploited elsewhere, under more favorable conditions than in Greenland where the economic model is not yet viable. These critical minerals, particularly rare earths, are sold at extremely low prices. Under these conditions, the economic equation does not hold.” underlines Nick Bæk Heilmann, senior research manager at Kaya Partners, a consulting firm operating in Greenland, during a press briefing.
Weather conditions – 80% of the continental mass is covered by ice caps – and the absence of infrastructure (ports for exporting ore, access routes to the mine, processing plants, etc.) constitute the main obstacles to the development of the mining sector on the island. In fact, only two mines are active there today, producing rubies, sapphires and anorthosite, highly sought after both as a semi-precious stone and as a building material. And the United States has until now been relatively inactive in the sector.
Expansion territoriale
“The last factor at play, and probably the most worrying, is that of American territorial expansion. Everything indicates that this is the real driver of the current situation”continues Nick Bæk Heilmann. A hypothesis corroborated by Cédric Philibert, specialist in decarbonization policies. “This desire to annex Greenland is first and foremost an eye on a map. For Donald Trump, the island is geographically part of North America and this part of the hemisphere. He thus wishes to go down in History as the one who expanded the country.”he explains to Novethic.
For its part, the Greenlandic government opposes the American wish to take possession of its immense territory and assures that it will intensify its efforts to ensure its defense within the framework of NATO, it said on Monday January 12. Denmark and Greenland are, like the United States, members of NATO. An American attack on one of the members of the Alliance would mean “the end of everything“, notably from NATO and the security system established at the end of the Second World War, warned the Danish Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen.
“The accents of empire” of Trump’s policies “opens the door to a chaotic world, marked by the end of alliances and the questioning of the notion of sovereignty”, had already alerted Iris in a note devoted to the subject, published in January 2025, at the time of Donald Trump’s inauguration at the White House. A risk that he seems to be ready to take.
