The Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs upgraded its travel advisory for Cuba to orange on May 21, 2026, warning that vacationing on the island is no longer safe. The move follows escalating social unrest, severe fuel and power shortages, and heightened military tensions between Havana and Washington.
This is not a routine update. The shift from yellow to orange signals a transition from caution to active risk, driven by a regime that is visibly fracturing under the weight of economic collapse and aggressive U.S. diplomacy. For the traveler, the warning is blunt: the Dutch government warns that its embassy may be less able to provide assistance to citizens who find themselves in trouble on the island.
Fuel Shortages and the Collapse of Basic Services
Cuba is currently enduring a systemic failure of its most basic infrastructure. According to reporting by NRC, the energy crisis has reached a breaking point where the state can no longer maintain the facade of stability. In Havana, residents recently suffered a power outage lasting 22 hours in a single day.
“We have absolutely no gasoline, absolutely no diesel.”
Vicente de la O Levy, Cuban Minister of Energy and Mines
This scarcity has triggered a visceral reaction from a population pushed to the limit. In various parts of the country, residents have taken to the streets, banging pots and pans and shouting, "Turn on the lights!". When garbage collection ceased due to the lack of fuel for trucks, piles of refuse became makeshift pyres, set ablaze in acts of desperation and protest.
The human cost is measured in hours. Luisa Steur, a Cuba specialist and associate professor of anthropology at the University of Amsterdam, notes that the daily struggle for survival has become a full-time job. As water and electricity become intermittent, citizens are spending an increasing amount of their time simply trying to secure basic needs.
- Energy: Widespread blackouts with only a few hours of electricity available in many regions.
- Sanitation: Weeks of accumulated waste due to fuel shortages for collection vehicles.
- Health: Critical shortages of essential medicines.
- Water: Unreliable running water, making storage a necessity for survival.
The Venezuelan Oil Vacuum and the Russian Exception
The current paralysis is the direct result of a geopolitical strangulation. For decades, Cuba bypassed U.S. sanctions by trading professional services—specifically doctors—to Venezuela in exchange for fuel. That lifeline was severed in January 2026 when the United States abducted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and subsequently seized control of the Venezuelan oil industry.
Since that operation, Cuba has faced a near-total blockade of oil imports. The only significant breach in this wall occurred in late March, when the U.S. permitted a single Russian oil tanker to dock in the port of Matanzas. Washington cited "humanitarian reasons" for allowing the shipment, which carried 730,000 barrels of oil.
One tanker is a gesture, not a solution. The failure to restore a steady flow of fuel has turned the island’s energy grid into a liability, leaving the communist regime vulnerable to the very unrest the U.S. appears to be courting.
The CIA’s Surprise Havana Visit
While the streets of Havana burn, the diplomatic theater has taken a surreal turn. In a move that NRC reports was a surprise to many, CIA Director John Ratcliffe visited Havana last Thursday.
The optics are staggering. This is only the second time a CIA director has visited Cuba since the 1959 revolution. The first instance occurred in 2015, when John Brennan traveled secretly to Havana during the Obama administration’s attempt at rapprochement. Ratcliffe’s visit, however, comes from a position of overwhelming leverage.
Washington’s message is clear: the U.S. is open to dialogue, but only on the condition that the Cuban government implements fundamental economic reforms and increases political openness. In Havana, this is viewed not as diplomacy, but as a precursor to regime change.
Legal Indictments and the Threat of US Intervention
The pressure is not merely economic or diplomatic; it is now judicial. As reported by NOS, former Cuban President Raúl Castro has been indicted in the United States on charges including conspiracy and murder. The U.S. Attorney General has expressed the expectation that Castro will arrive in the United States "of their own free will or in some other way."
President Miguel Díaz-Canel has dismissed these charges as a political game. He argues that the indictment is a calculated move to "justify the folly of a military aggression against Cuba."
The tension has reached a fever pitch, with Washington threatening intervention following the removal of Maduro. However, President Trump has recently attempted to downplay the likelihood of a direct military escalation, suggesting that the regime is already defeated by its own incompetence.
“I don’t think that’s necessary, the country is falling apart. They have already lost control over Cuba.”
Donald Trump, U.S. President
Risks for Travelers and the Orange Warning
For the average tourist, these geopolitical maneuvers translate into immediate physical risk. The Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs has cautioned that while demonstrations currently remain limited in number, they can emerge unexpectedly and without warning.
The danger is not just the protests themselves, but the state’s response to them. The ministry warns travelers to "keep in mind that local authorities react harshly to protests and public unrest."
Dutch citizens currently on the island are advised to contact their travel organizations immediately to determine the safest course of action. With the embassy’s capacity diminished and the domestic situation volatile, Cuba has shifted from a destination of curiosity to a zone of instability.
