A year of insults, threats and contempt for traditional allies is boomeranging back at Donald Trump. The American president is now finding that a war with Iran would go much easier if he had friends on hand — that is, if they had military bases he could use. But Europe is not backing down this time.
When the “special relationship” turns into an ice sheet
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British Prime Minister Keir Starmer refused to allow American bombers to take off from British air bases. According to sources from Washington and London, similar negative attitudes have also appeared among other European allies – Trump suddenly discovers that loyalty is not a matter of course.
The reaction from the White House was predictable: threats of trade sanctions, sharp attacks against “ungrateful” allies. At the same time, last year it was Trump who criticized Europe for weakness in migration policy, promised to seize Greenland and drastically reduced support for Ukraine. Now it’s Washington that needs help. And Europe remembers it.
The shadows of Iraq are returning
The tension surrounding the Iran operation is reminiscent of 2003, when George W. Bush marched into Iraq without broader support from allies. France refused to participate at the time – the republicans did not forget it for years. Today, history is repeating itself, only with a reversed scenario. Trump didn’t expect Europe to say no. After all, last year he forced her to increase defense budgets to five percent of GDP by 2035. He expected obedience.
“I guess President Trump didn’t even try to get NATO support for a war with Iran – maybe he thought it wasn’t worth it,” said Emily Thornberry, chair of the foreign affairs committee, according to sources in the British parliament. “Now he’s probably learning a lesson about the value of a broad base of allies.”
According to information from the Pentagon, Trump’s military advisers warned that a war with Iran would be more dangerous without key allies. The president ignored the warning. As did the allies in the Persian Gulf, who also discouraged him.
Germany yes, Britain no
Not all Europeans are in Trump’s black book. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz received praise after opening Ramstein Air Base. At the same time, Washington is not asking for direct participation. “We don’t want them to send troops to the ground or anything like that,” the president emphasized. But even this “passive” support carries risks. European countries are considering increasing their military presence in the Middle East – officially to protect their own interests. But any military deployment in an escalating conflict means the risk of being drawn into the fighting.
What does this mean for Europe?
Transatlantic relations are at a historic low, comparable perhaps only to the Suez crisis or the invasion of Iraq. Trump has imposed or threatens tariffs on European goods, is pressuring Denmark over Greenland and is openly talking about the possibility of using military force against European allies.
Europe responds by seeking strategic autonomy. Increases defense spending, builds own capacities. But he still needs America – without Trump’s pressure, Russia will not come to the negotiating table regarding Ukraine. Without American weapons, Kiev faces defeat.
“If we want international law and multilateralism, we must be able to express concerns about American actions,” said a European diplomat. “What leverage will we have against Putin’s war in Ukraine if Europe cannot object to America’s war with Iran? We would lose credibility.”
Constance Stelzenmüller of the Washington think tank Brookings Institution summed it up sharply: “A power that is sure of the reality and legitimacy of its own power does not treat people or other powers like this. Europeans are horrified by the idea that we could witness the self-destruction of American power.” Trump may have discovered that America needs Europe. But isn’t it too late?
Source info: politico.eu
Author: Petr Poreba
Photo: Created by AI in ChatGPT
