Tesla had to drastically cut its robotaxi fleet goals for Austin from 500 to just 60 vehicles. In addition, the automotive industry shows little interest in FSD technology licensing.
Elon Musk is known for aggressive timelines and visionary promises, but now reality is catching up with the tech pioneer. Instead of the announced robotaxi offensive, there is a drastic correction of the goals, which scares investors. Is this the beginning of the end of the great autonomy fantasy or just a technical pit stop?
Robotaxi fleet radically reduced
At the heart of the current market turmoil is a massive revision of plans for the Austin site. Originally, 500 autonomous vehicles from the Robotaxi fleet were supposed to be on the roads by the end of the year. Now Musk had to backtrack drastically: only around 60 vehicles are expected for December.
This nearly 90 percent cut raises serious questions. Investors are not only concerned about the missed targets, but above all about the scalability of the technology. If even the pilot projects falter, the vision of a global autonomous fleet becomes distant.
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Software dreams burst
As if the operational stuttering wasn’t enough, another statement caused disillusionment among the strategists. Musk expressed frustration that rival automakers have shown little interest in licensing “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) technology.
This means that the hopes of many bulls who had relied on high-margin software income through partnerships are crumbling. The established car manufacturers seem to prefer to go their own way or look for alternative partnerships instead of becoming dependent on the Tesla ecosystem. Without this external adoption, an important lever for future profit growth is missing.
Analysts: Still a buy?
Despite these operational setbacks, there are also prominent advocates who are swimming against the tide. Melius Research continues to classify the stock as a “Must Own” – a stock that you have to own. The focus here is not on the short-term failings in the fleet, but on Tesla’s dominance in the area of artificial intelligence and chip development. For these experts, the long-term benefits of AI outweigh the current delays in hardware rollout.
The paper is currently trading at around 365.60 euros and is therefore struggling for direction just below the 50-day average. The coming weeks will show whether the reduced fleet can at least be technically convincing in December or whether investor confidence will continue to erode.
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