More than a million Russians were killed or seriously injured in the battlefields in Ukraine. But there is one person who owes his life to the continued slaughter. For Vladimir Putin, the outbreak of peace means certain death – through murder, removal and execution, or in an international prison cell as a war criminal.
The only hope of the Russian president for survival in the gangster state he has created is to extend the “special military operation” in Ukraine or to win with such scandalous success that he can turn his attention to other former client countries, other victims.
After all, the survival was Putin’s goal at the start of the invasion of 2022.
In his endless reflections on history, the Russian president claims that all of Ukraine – not only the eastern regions of Donbass, Donetsk and Crimea – is part of the Russian Empire. Putin claims his mission is to unite former territories, while refusing Kiev the chance to join NATO with the West. From the point of view of Russian interests, this may seem logical as a justification for war. But if justifications can change, Putin’s true, cynical motifs cannot.
His strategy for holding power – and therefore of life – comes directly from Nicolo Machiavellithe calculating philosopher who wrote a guide for dictators.
The war, he teaches, is the only major lever of power. And the psychopathic Putin can use this lever especially effectively because he is ready to sacrifice millions of lives in his own interest – that of Russians, Ukrainians, Europeans and even Americans, if necessary.
Europe is lucky that Ukraine turned out to be such a stubborn and brave opponent. If the Ukrainians had not fought so fiercely against an enemy who was superior to them many times, Putin would have directed his military machine to another goal-most likely Poland.
The war has been the reason for him to remain the ruler of Russia for more than 25 years. If he had not been able to create distracting factors, he would have long been expelled from his post.
The standard of living is slowly eroded to the extent that many people are in a worse position than they were even with the Soviet government. The Russian economy is stagnant, inflation has increased to 10 percent, and even the many advertised energy revenue of the country is in decline. Corruption is a very weak word to describe the mass loot that replaces the communist bureaucracy. Russia is the strongest Mafia State, and Putin is its godfather.
I have a reasonable reason to know. There is a reward for my head since 2005, when I was refused entry into Russia and was declared wanted in an open attempt by Putin to take control of my asset management company and steal $ 230 million taxes that my business had paid to the Russian government.
Four years later, my lawyer and close friend Sergei Magnitsky was beaten to death in a Russian insulation cell to reveal this huge scam. The murder of the state has become so common in Russia that the death of any prominent figure is considered an attempt – usually by a car bomb, poisoning or falling from a high window.
Putin is paranoid for his personal safety – and for reasonable reason. Instability is looming from anti -government activists, foreign “enemies” and even power -loving employees in his own tent. One way or another, it is very likely that when he leaves the Kremlin, he will be in an ark.
Like any gangster, Putin’s main instinct is survival. Then the money comes.
When I flew to Alaska for the so -called peace talks last Friday, he had two real goals: to avoid financial sanctions; and to establish himself again as a respected international intermediary of power. In both goals, he succeeded. In fact, Donald Trump was already outsourced before US presidential planes landed in an anchorid. He was pressed into the corner, boasting repeatedly before last year’s election that he would end the war in 24 hours. When this turned out to be impossible, Trump has made a series of ultimatums, with a lot of noise for tariffs, sanctions and taxes, if Putin does not agree to the cessation of the fire. Each of these deadlines had expired without consequences.
Trump had already lost much of his influence when he stopped sending military assistance to Ukraine. And when Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenski was harassed in front of the White House cameras in February, Putin knew there was a carte blanche to continue waging a war indefinitely.
After all, the President of the United States really has the power to cripple the Russian economy if he wishes. This cannot be done through direct measures. But indirectly Trump can use the Last Judgment Financial Weapons.
By threatening China, India and Brazil with high duties, it can make it impossible for Moscow’s main trading partners to continue doing business with Russian companies. And since there is no one to buy oil and gas or send him weapons, Putin will quickly be done.
The so -called summit on Friday was an opportunity for the Kremlin to ensure that the disaster would not happen. So Putin gave Trump everything he needed – starting with praise. The war would never have happened, he said, if Trump was president in 2022.
Every gangster needs a victim and former President Joe Biden meets this criterion.
Putin then offered empty promises that his goal was peace.
The only obstacle, he said, is the Ukrainian government, a warning war. This is his insincere position from the beginning: if the Ukrainians simply accept that they are not entitled to independence, Russia could rule their country without any need for violence.
Finally, behind the scenes, he will make sure Trump be fully rewarded. We do not know what private transactions may have been concluded under the table with respect to, for example, the mineral riches of Ukraine. But we know that Trump is a person who views other countries as “real estate” waiting to be operated.
We also know that he has accepted a luxury Boeing 747 worth about $ 400 million – with gold walls and furniture – from the Qatari royal family when he signed a business partnership with them.
Whether Putin has found ways to surpass this, we don’t know. But whatever was agreed, Russia has avoided those tariffs that would be a real Armageddon.
Still, it was only half of Putin’s agenda in Alaska. He was also determined to demonstrate his legitimacy as a world leader.
He could have been arrested as a war criminal at the time his plane landed. At the moment, he must be where the crimes deserve – dressed in an orange overalls, chained in a cage in Guantanamo Bay. But there has never been the slightest risk of that. Instead, he demonstrates his powerreminding the world that it is “untouchable”, however illusory it really may be.
Because Russia is a loaded truck that struggles to climb a steep hill that never ends. The driver does not dare to remove his leg from the accelerator because he will stop fatal – and will be pulled out of the driver’s seat. Putin should continue, ignoring the screams of the engine, killing anyone who gets into the road.
And he’ll do it.
The comment is by Sir William Browder – the author of two books of his time in Russia: Red Notification and Frozing Order.
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