geopolitical tensions are escalating, and energy markets are on high alert. Should the United States become directly involved in the ongoing conflict between Tehran and Jerusalem, analysts foresee a critically important risk of energy price surges, notably concerning the critical chokepoint of the Hormuz Strait.

According to Manuel Frondel, an energy expert at the RWI-Leibniz Institute, oil prices could climb dramatically if the U.S.military engages in the conflict. “If the United States were actively involved in the war and the conflict escalated, oil and gas prices could increase suddenly after I have risen to Iran last Friday,” said frondel. He added, “oil price increases to $ 100 and more would be possible with an escalation. This also depends on how long the conflict continues and whether the street of Hormus would be blocked in the course of the conflict.”

Potential Oil Price Shockwaves

Oil price increases to $ 100 and more would be possible with an escalation.

Frondel noted that Brent crude prices have already risen from $68 to $76 per barrel (159 liters). He emphasized the strategic importance of the Hormuz Strait: “through the street of Hormus, the transport of the Gulf states and thus a fifth of global oil exports run.Iran itself plays a subordinate role, because it covers only two percent of the global oil requirement.”

Concerns Over Nuclear Escalation

Omid Nouripour, Vice President of the Bundestag, has urged de-escalation amidst the Israel-Iran conflict. “The stability of the whole region is at stake, and the consequences of a surface fire would be incalculable, also for Israel,” nouripour stated. “This is also why the hour of de -escalation is now. In addition, there is a risk that a potential exit of radioactivity would have devastating consequences for people and the environment far beyond Iran.”

Nouripour also criticized the Iranian government’s internal policies. “The population lives in constant uncertainty, since systematic mismanagement does not guarantee reliable civil protection and lets central supply systems collapse,” he said. “At the same time,the Iranian government is intensifying its brutal repression policy: arrests and internet shutdowns are increasing to suffocate protests and political opposition in the bud.”

He further warned of the potential for Iran to develop nuclear weapons. “The destruction of Israel has been Iranian state doctrine since 1979, and Israel has the right to defend its existence and security,” Nouripour added, underscoring Israel’s right to self-defense.