Heightened concerns Over Potential Seismic Activity

Amidst growing anxieties fueled by both traditional beliefs and modern media, the Chinese Embassy in Japan has released a cautionary notice to its citizens. The advisory urges careful consideration regarding travel plans, educational pursuits, and real estate investments within Japan.

The Nankai Trough Earthquake: A Looming Threat?

The advisory comes against a backdrop of increasing public awareness regarding the potential for a major earthquake along the Nankai Trough. Japanese goverment estimates, released in March 2025, paint a grim picture. A magnitude 9.0 earthquake in this region, notably affecting areas from Kyushu to Miyazaki Prefecture, could result in approximately 298,000 fatalities and inflict economic damage estimated at 292.3 trillion yen (approximately $2.3 trillion USD).

These projections are based on expert reviews and geological data, highlighting the region’s vulnerability to seismic activity.The Nankai Trough is a subduction zone where the Philippine Sea Plate is sliding beneath the Eurasian Plate, a process known to generate powerful earthquakes.

Rumors and Prophecies Fuel Public Anxiety

Adding to the unease, unsubstantiated rumors circulating in Hong Kong suggest an imminent earthquake in July 2025. These rumors draw on a combination of local Feng Shui beliefs and interpretations of Japanese manga. One Feng Shui video, reportedly viewed over 100 million times, advises against travel to Japan, even in April. Furthermore, a manga titled The future I saw by Tatsuki Ryo, has gained traction on social media platforms across hong Kong, Taiwan, and mainland China, further amplifying concerns.

It is better not to go to Japan even in April.

An excerpt from a viral Feng Shui video.

Embassy Statement: Precautionary Measures, Not a Specific Warning

While some Japanese media outlets have interpreted the Chinese Embassy’s notice as a general advisory for a country prone to earthquakes, the timing and specific wording have raised eyebrows. The embassy emphasizes the importance of disaster preparedness, including securing emergency supplies and understanding evacuation procedures. Though, the advisory’s specific mention of carefully planning travel and real estate investments suggests a heightened level of concern.

Economic Impact: Flight Reductions and Tourism Decline

the earthquake rumors and subsequent travel advisory appear to be impacting tourism. Hong Kong’s Greater Bay airlines has announced reductions in flights between Hong Kong and Japanese cities such as Sendai and Tokushima, starting in mid-May. According to NHK, travel demand from Hong Kong to Japan between February and April has halved compared to the previous year, indicating a critically important downturn in tourism.

The potential economic repercussions of a major earthquake, coupled with the impact of reduced tourism, pose significant challenges for Japan’s economy. The government is actively working to reassure tourists and residents alike, emphasizing the country’s robust disaster preparedness infrastructure and ongoing efforts to mitigate the risks associated with seismic activity.