It will not end in Ukraine. Kremlin wants to dominate another European state, warns the analyst

Why is it important for us in the Czech Republic to know what is happening in Moldova?

From my point of view, the most important thing is that Moldova is a country that is not a member of NATO and is behind Ukraine. At the same time, there is a clear Russian intention to take over this state and build a regime similar to that in Belarus. Practically, if Russia gains control over Moldavia, it can use it to military intervention against Ukraine, which would change the balance in the world. And most importantly, it would have the consequences for Ukraine and Europe.

In addition, Romania lives approximately 1.2 million Moldovan citizens who are citizens of the European Union and enjoy full freedom of movement. In the event that Russia dominates Moldova, it will gain substantial pressure on these people. It can force them or abuse them to involve in destabilization actions against EU and NATO Member States. And we have already had several situations where the Moldovans were used in various destabilization operations, such as the incitement of anti -Semitic behavior in France. It is therefore in direct interest of European countries to make Moldova stable and Russia does not get control over it.

How high do you think is the likelihood that the Russians will dominate the Moldova? In the autumn you will be elections to parliament.

The forecast does not look too good for the current pro -European government. Russia is already having agents within state institutions and can acquire several other instruments of influence. Unfortunately, corruption is also a very effective tool. Therefore, I would say that Russia has a middle to high chance.

The Russians have a clear determination, invest large funds in interference in the elections and influence public opinion in Moldova. We talked about approximately 150 million euros last year (about 3.7 billion crowns – ed.). To give you an idea, it is 1.2 percent of the country’s nominal GDP. This is a huge amount. Try to calculate how much is 1.2 percent of the GDP of the Czech Republic (According to data from 2023 it would be about 90 billion crowns – ed.)and imagine what happens when someone uses such a crazy amount just to influence the elections.

Are Russia due to sanctions and expensive war in Ukraine money for such operations?

This year, Russia did not reduce its efforts, their expenditures have increased. They address influencers from all possible areas. It may be someone who talks about sports, food or lifestyle, and they just offer him money to tell some of their stories.

But the situation in the country generally records Russia. Pro -European forces are not so strong, which is understandable after many years of economic problems and high inflation. Just to imagine, in the last four years, Moldova had more than 60 percent of real inflation, which is very painful to the population.

So Russia uses these economic problems of your country?

Russia does not only use problems, even creates them. For example, at the beginning of this year, gas supplies interrupted to the detached area of the Transnistria, which has been under his military control for 33 years. Later, it reduced the amount of gas supplied to this area, which forced a large power plant in the Transnacula to reduce the sale of electricity to the second part of Moldova, as a result of which the price of electricity in Moldova has doubled.

The only step, without excessive resources, has caused Russia a new price growth in the second part of Moldova. Similarly, it happened in 2021, when Russia unilaterally decided to increase the price of gas sold by Moldova.

Let us return to the parliamentary elections. What do you expect from them?

The party that rules is connected with the President. Without it, only the units of the percentage would have support. This is a party that was unable to create at least one more or less visible and popular leader except the president. It is in its second term. This party has existed for almost nine years, actually for more than nine years, and nothing has happened in this respect, which is a great weakness.

Gazprom now does not supply any gas to Moldova or Transnistria. So how do they currently gain gas?

Moldova uses a pipeline from Romania. In addition, there is a system with a company based in Dubai, which belongs to a Hungarian gas merchant, close to the Orbán government, buying gas on the free market for Transnistria and Egypt.

And of course, money to Dubai is leaving Russia. The self -proclaimed authorities in the Transnistria tell us about the debt or loan provided by Russia, which is ridiculous. No one will ever pay this loan, we have seen any official documents. The only thing that has an official connection with Russia is the statement of the Hungarian Foreign Minister, who said they were contacted by the Russian Minister of Energy to join this plan.

Why does the Moldovan government agree?

Because it does not have too many options, otherwise the incitement would simply collapse in the humanitarian and economic crisis. It would also affect the rest of Moldova. It is therefore a very unorthodox method, but at the same time a compromise that the Moldovan government had to accept.

So I still have gas?

Yes and is transported through Moldovan territory. On the other hand, it’s not illegal. Anyone who has a license can do it. But it is a kind of mutual agreement that the Russians will continue in this way to help the incitement in a certain way, and the Moldovan government accepts it. However, the Moldovan government still has a certain lever and tools of potential pressure, because they cannot circumvent the territory of Moldova and partly even the territory of Ukraine. On the other hand, it is a well -known European trader and cannot be blocked by access to infrastructure.