Israel-Iran Conflict: Maps & Response

Israel and the United States have launched a joint military attack against Iran. The first missiles have fallen in Tehran, the country’s capital, where explosions have been recorded since 8 a.m. this Saturday (local time, 7:00 a.m. in mainland Spain, midnight in Mexico City). Videos from local media and agencies have confirmed bombings on at least a dozen cities in the country.

The attack would have hit the residence of Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran. This has been indicated by the United States authorities and would be confirmed by the following satellite image taken by Airbus. The damaged building is usually the main residence of Khamenei and senior officials of the regime. For their part, Iranian authorities have said that the country’s top authority is safe and is leading the armed forces.

The first Iranian measure has been the closure of airspace, also applied in a few hours by Iraq and by Israel itself, which has declared a state of emergency. At mid-morning this Saturday, air traffic in the area was already completely altered by the situation, as can be seen with data from FiletRadar24.

Iran’s military response has not been long in coming. Less than three hours after the attack, Tehran’s long-range missiles have hit at least four American sites in the region. These are three air bases (in Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates) and a naval base (in Bahrain). It was one of Tehran’s stated threats should the attack occur.

Iran has claimed to have launched more attacks towards Qatar and Israel. In the country’s capital, Tel Aviv, anti-aircraft alarms have been heard since early in the morning and the Government of Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed to have already shot down several missiles launched from Iran (the Israeli anti-missile system is one of the most advanced in the world).

One of the unknowns is how far the Iranian response can go. Iran has the largest missile arsenal in the Middle East, with ballistic and cruise missiles capable of reaching Israel and southeastern Europe, according to the Center for Strategic Studies (CSIS).

The US deployment in the region and Iran’s allies

The attack does not come entirely by surprise. On Thursday, talks in Geneva between the delegations of the United States and Iran were closed without an agreement and pressure in the region had been increasing for months.

Washington had deployed an extensive fleet to the area, including two aircraft carriers, the Gerald R. Fold and the Abraham Lincoln, with a combined capacity for more than 150 aircraft and more than 5,000 crew members. Both, protected by destroyer ships. In recent weeks, dozens of American fighters had also been deployed to operational and support bases in the region (also in the Spanish base of Rota).

The North American troops deployed in the Middle East would total between 40,000 and 50,000 troops, who will have to protect themselves from another of Iran’s assets: the Shiite militias that the Islamic Republic can activate against its enemies. It must be taken into account that the aggressive war that Israel has waged in the region after the Hamas attacks in October 2023, with bombings in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Qatar and Yemen, in addition to Gaza, has clearly reduced the response capacity of its allies, but has not completely eliminated it.