Isla Margarita & Venezuela-US War Fears

The USA is hunting drug cartels off the coast of Venezuela. However, the focus is more on the socialist President Nicolás Maduro and the huge oil reserves. An expert can imagine that Trump would have his Navy set up a blockade.

Donald Trump is increasing the pressure on Venezuela. The South American country would face “unforeseeable” consequences if it refused to take back migrants from psychiatric facilities in the USA, the US President wrote on his online network “Truth Social”.

It is unclear whether this concern is justified. But the anger towards Venezuela is obviously great: a few weeks ago, the USA sent warships off the Venezuelan coast to track down and fight alleged drug smugglers. According to official information, 17 people have already been killed. Venezuela’s government speaks of an “undeclared war” by the USA. United Nations human rights monitors see violations of international law and international maritime law.

But Donald Trump believes he is right. The US President and his government accuse Venezuela’s head of state Nicolás Maduro of leading a drug cartel and flooding the US with drugs. That’s why the American Navy has stationed a small fleet of warships off the coast. Trump also had fighter jets relocated to the US territory of Puerto Rico in the Caribbean.

“Difficult area to monitor”

A tense situation, says Christian Cwik. “We’re talking about almost 1,000 kilometers of Caribbean coast with many offshore islands,” says Hhistorian at the University of Klagenfurt and Director of the International Center for Atlantic History (ICAH) in Gibraltar in the ntv podcast “Learned something again”. “There is the ring of islands that stretches from the Gulf of Maracaibo to Trinidad. This is an area that is difficult to monitor, even for Venezuela.”

Cwik conducted research in South America for years, including in Venezuela, where he is still well connected today. “When I talk to my colleagues in Venezuela, the mood is tense. Something could arise that wasn’t really imaginable until now, namely that the USA could take control of the offshore islands. This goes as far as the suspicion that Isla Margarita could possibly be occupied by the Americans.”

Isla Margarita is the largest island off the Venezuelan coast, formerly a popular tourist island, including for vacationers from the West. The island is slightly larger than Rügen. It is only about 20 kilometers from the Venezuelan coast.

If the Americans want to expand their military operations off Venezuela, it would be an ideal gateway. A kind of stepping stone to bring the region under control. Cwik rules out a land operation by the US armed forces in Venezuela. But that wouldn’t be necessary to significantly weaken Venezuela. From Isla Margarita, the Americans could block the Orinoco Delta in the northeast of the Venezuelan coast. From here, Venezuela transports large amounts of oil to the world.

“The US Navy could set up a military barrier,” says the historian. “That’s not so far-fetched because these ideas have often been formulated in various papers, especially in the think tanks in Puerto Rico.”

The Caribbean region not far from the Venezuelan coast is heavily militarized. The US outpost Puerto Rico is over 900 kilometers away. But on the island of Curacao there is a military base that the USA is allowed to use, just 70 kilometers from the Venezuelan coast. Curacao is an autonomous country within the Kingdom of the Netherlands, but defense and foreign policy are carried out from The Hague and therefore by a NATO state.

Maduro firmly in the saddle

Nicolás Maduro calls the US military presence in the Caribbean the “biggest threat of the last 100 years.” If the Americans attack his country, the Venezuelan ruler wants to proclaim “a republic in arms.” Maduro has already announced the general mobilization of 4.5 million militia members.

The message is clear: Maduro is trying to show strength against the USA. Venezuela recently responded to the American maneuvers with a military exercise on the small island of La Orchila, northwest of Isla Margarita.

The general conditions could be worse: Maduro is comparatively firmly in the saddle, even though the USA has put a $50 million bounty on his head. Important neighboring countries are more on Maduro’s side. “We don’t have Maduro’s close friend in Lula in Brazil, but we do have someone who is demanding a self-determined south through the Brics states. In the same breath, I would mention President Petro in Colombia. The situation couldn’t be better for Venezuela,” Cwik analyzes in the podcast. “In addition, there is Claudia Sheinbaum in Mexico, who, as the third major Latin American power, would certainly not be on the side of the USA.”

Raw materials in focus

However, Cwik does not believe that Donald Trump is primarily concerned with fighting drug cartels. “The hunt for drug gangs is a vehicle for conducting educational activities in the area.” In addition, Venezuela’s raw materials are highly attractive for the USA. “It’s about petroleum, about uranium, about gold, about silver, about lithium.”

No country in the world has as much oil as Venezuela. However, production has plummeted in recent years. The reason for this is a gigantic political failure. Maduro has made the state oil company PDVSA an extension of his power apparatus. American sanctions have further exacerbated the collapse of the oil sector.

The American attacks and threats are also a geopolitical struggle for influence – the USA wants to expand its position, because so far China has mainly been doing business with Venezuela. Beijing sources crude oil from the socialist country. China benefits from Venezuela’s isolation on the world market and can buy oil particularly cheaply despite long transport routes. China’s influence in the country was already “growing every day” 20 years ago, when Christian Cwik lived in Caracas and worked at the university.

The USA does not want to conduct normal oil trade with Venezuela. Cwik is convinced that Trump is trying to dry up the Venezuelan market. This is also supported by the fact that the US President withdrew a special permit for the American company Chevron to produce oil in Venezuela. Joe Biden had granted the concessions – in return, Venezuela gave the then president a promise to hold elections. Despite proven electoral fraud, the permit for oil production remained in place.

Trump would certainly still like to access Venezuela’s huge oil reserves. However, regime change in Venezuela seems to be more important to the USA. The military actions against drug cartels may serve as preparation.