In 2026, the Vietnamese real estate market faces new opportunities as the legal framework gradually improves and investment mentality changes significantly. While pressure on interest rates remains a challenge, experts believe this is a crucial period to clean up the market, redirecting capital towards meeting real housing needs and sustainable business and production values.
Pressure derived from financial leverage
According to commercial banks, variable interest rates for loans are usually between 13.4% and 13.8% per year, even reaching 14% or 15% per year in some cases, putting considerable pressure on the financing costs of borrowers and businesses. In reality, when the cost of capital increases, the flow of speculative capital with high financial leverage is drastically reduced.
According to Dr. Nguyen Van Dinh, Vice President of the Vietnam Real Estate Association (VNREA) and President of the Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS), this rise in interest rates has put enormous financial pressure on two groups: first, the previous period home buyers, clients who are still burdened by old loans, whose preferential loan period has ended, and who now face increasing monthly interest payments.
Secondly, investors using financial leverage are forced to temporarily suspend trading to observe the situation due to high capital costs. The inevitable consequence is the emergence of loss reduction in the secondary market. Many apartments and houses have seen price reductions of up to half a billion dong, as owners can no longer maintain the cash flow needed to pay their debts.
Meanwhile, Dr. Tran Xuan Luong, deputy director of the Vietnam Institute of Real Estate Market Research and Evaluation, noted that the real estate sector is strongly influenced by market sentiment and is particularly sensitive to monetary policy. When interest rates rise, investments based on short-term expectations will quickly reveal risks.
Mr. Nguyen Van Dinh commented: This year’s market is undergoing a strong purification process, where differentiation is evident. Buyers are no longer chasing speculative land bubbles, but are prioritizing products with real value: high quality, integrated infrastructure, adequate living spaces and transparent legal procedures. Small, space-poor projects lacking services are gradually losing appeal and disappearing. On the contrary, products close to the subway, ring roads or public works maintain their value and tend to increase in price.
Create a sustainable growth cycle.
Despite the short-term pressure, many economic experts believe current interest rates are corrective, not a long-term trend. According to Nguyen Quang Huy, a finance and banking expert, interest rates should be considered within the total cost of capital for the economy, linked to the financing channels and the management capacity of the banking system.
Looking ahead to the end of 2026, a sharp reduction in interest rates is unlikely due to global geopolitical uncertainties and inflationary pressures. The most optimistic scenario foresees interest rates remaining stable and gradually stabilizing thanks to the flexible management of the State Bank of Vietnam, which will create favorable conditions for companies and investors to proactively develop their financial plans.
In a context of high interest rates, the support of renowned credit institutions and investors has become a fundamental pillar of the market. Banks are implementing various flexible credit packages, prioritizing capital for sustainable investment strategies and real housing needs, rather than short-term speculative capital.
To support their clients, many large real estate developers have implemented unprecedented policies. Previously, interest rate support lasted only 1 or 2 years, but now some projects extend it to 5 years; Banks are also extending loan terms to 35 or 40 years and increasing the grace period for repayment of principal, in order to reduce the initial financial pressure on people. However, representatives of the banking sector also stated that there will not be a general opening of the credit tap.
According to Nguyen Khanh Phuc, deputy director of the Personal Banking Division at Tien Phong Commercial Bank (TPBank), banks continue to offer many flexible credit packages, but access to capital does not depend on the ease of payment, but on the ability to meet credit conditions. Clients must have stable income, sufficient liquidity to pay the debt, legal guarantees and a good credit history.
From a policy perspective, efforts to improve the legal framework and remove market obstacles are accelerating. According to Tong Thi Hanh, director of the Department of Housing and Real Estate Market Management (Ministry of Construction), the draft amendments and additions to the Real Estate Business Law will be included in the 2026 legislative agenda and will be submitted to the National Assembly for approval during the year. The goal is to promote decentralization and empower localities to proactively manage the market; simplify business conditions, reduce administrative interference and facilitate business; ensure consistency with related laws, such as construction, housing and land laws, especially in the management of urban development; and address practical obstacles, in particular the conditions for the marketing of real estate and the management of intermediation activities.
Importantly, the creation of an accurate, complete, clean and dynamic market data system, as well as transparent transaction management, is expected to contribute to accurately reflecting transaction prices, limiting price manipulation, and thus creating a basis for healthy and sustainable market development.
In a broader sense, the real estate sector is not only an investment channel but also a crucial component of the economy. According to economist Vu Dinh Anh, a change of perspective is necessary, considering the real estate sector as a productive and commercial sector with repercussions in many areas, such as construction, materials, finance and services. In this context, policy management must seek a balance between risk control and support for growth.
Furthermore, for sustainable market development, Mr. Nguyen Van Dinh suggested the need to continue improving institutions, diversifying capital sources and reducing dependence on bank credit. Companies must optimize costs, and investors must remain calm and seize the opportunities of the new development cycle.
