IMF Raises 2026 Global Growth Forecasts | Economy News

The International Monetary Fund raised its forecasts for global economic growth in 2026, indicating the resilience of economic activity despite trade disruptions over the past year, benefiting from the reduction in customs duties and the continued strong momentum for investment in artificial intelligence technologies.

According to the current January issue of the World Economic Outlook report issued – today, Monday – the Fund expects global GDP to grow by 3.3% in 2026, an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to its previous estimate last October.

The Fund maintained its 2025 growth estimate at 3.3%, which is also about 0.1 percentage point higher than October expectations, while growth is likely to reach 3.2% in 2027 without change.

“Global growth remains resilient,” Pierre-Olivier Gurinchas, economic advisor and director of the Fund’s Research Department, told Reuters, explaining that the global economy has overcome tariff shocks in 2025 and achieved better results than expected before those disturbances.

He pointed out that companies have redirected their supply chains to adapt to American duties, at a time when recent trade agreements have contributed to reducing part of those duties, while China has directed its exports to alternative markets outside the United States.

The Fund’s latest estimates assume that the actual rate of US customs duties will reach 18.5%, compared to about 25% in April 2025 expectations, after they reached their peak in that period following the measures taken by the administration of US President Donald Trump.

Growth of major economies

• At the level of major economies, the Fund raised its forecast for US economic growth in 2026 to 2.4%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from October estimates, driven by huge investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure, including data centers, chip development, and energy. On the other hand, he lowered his forecast for US growth in 2027 to 2%.
• In Europe, the Fund forecast eurozone growth of 1.3% in 2026, 0.1 percentage point higher than the October estimate, supported by higher public spending in Germany and improved performance in Spain and Ireland, while maintaining the 2027 forecast at 1.4%. He also maintained his forecast for Britain’s growth At 1.3% in 2026.
• As for China, the Fund expects its economic growth to reach 4.5% in 2026, which is lower than the 2025 performance, which exceeded 5%, but higher than October estimates by about 0.3 percentage points, benefiting from the reduction of US duties on Chinese goods and the transfer of exports to Southeast Asian and European markets.

Gourinsha warned that continued over-reliance on exports could expose China to more protectionist policies unless it boosts domestic demand.

IMF: Artificial intelligence may add up to 0.3 percentage points to global growth in 2026, and between 0.1 and 0.8 percentage points annually in the medium term.

Artificial intelligence boom

The report indicated that the artificial intelligence boom carries great opportunities for growth, but it also entails risks, including the possibility of higher inflation if its pace accelerates, or a sharp correction in market valuations if the expected productivity gains are not achieved.

The Fund stated that artificial intelligence could add up to 0.3 percentage points to global growth in 2026, and between 0.1 and 0.8 percentage points annually in the medium term, depending on the speed of its adoption and the willingness of economies to benefit from it.

At the same time, the Fund expected global inflation to continue to decline from 4.1% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, which opens the way for easing monetary policies and supporting global economic growth.