Almost 40 percent of existing glaciers are at risk of disappearing, even if
global temperatures do not increase from where they are today, according to
new findings.

An international study published in
Science reveals that glaciers are more sensitive to global warming
than previous models suggested. The research team used eight different
glacier models to project ice loss from over 200,000 glaciers worldwide
under various temperature scenarios, assuming constant temperatures for
thousands of years in each scenario.

Under current climate policies, which project a 2.7°C global temperature
increase, over 75 percent of glacier mass will be lost. However, limiting
warming to 1.5°C, as targeted by the Paris Agreement, would preserve 54
percent of glacier mass.

“Our study makes it painfully clear that every fraction of a degree
matters,” said
Dr. Harry Zekollari, co-author of the research and Associate professor at the Vrije
Universiteit in Brussels.

“The choices we make today will resonate for centuries, determining how much
of our glaciers can be preserved.”

Dr. Lilian schuster,another co-lead author,notes that glaciers serve as key indicators of
climate change,with their retreat providing visible evidence of a changing
climate.

“But the situation for glaciers is actually far worse than visible in the
mountains today,” she added.

Glaciers Vital to Communities Face Greatest Threat

“Our study makes it painfully clear that every fraction of a degree
matters.”

The study indicates that the impact of rising temperatures is disproportionately
skewed by the large glaciers in Antarctica and Greenland. Glaciers that
are most critical to human populations are even more vulnerable, with many
perhaps losing almost all of their ice at a 2°C warming level.

Regions such as the European Alps, the Rockies in the Western U.S. and
Canada, and Iceland could lose 85-90 percent of their ice relative to 2020
levels with a 2°C temperature increase. Scandinavia may become entirely
devoid of glacier ice at this level.

The Hindu Kush Himalaya region, which feeds river basins supporting 2 billion
people, could lose 75 percent of its ice compared to 2020 levels under a
2°C warming scenario.

Adhering to the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target would ensure that some glacier
ice remains in all regions, including Scandinavia, with 20-30 percent
remaining in the most sensitive areas and 40-45 percent in the Himalayas
and Caucasus.

The research underscores the urgent need to meet the 1.5°C temperature goal
through rapid decarbonization. The team of scientists discovered that glaciers
lose mass rapidly over decades in all scenarios, followed by a slower melt
over centuries, even without additional warming. This suggests that glaciers
will continue to feel the effects of current warming trends for an extended
period.

Glaciers in the Tropics,such as those in the central Andes of Peru,Ecuador,
and Colombia,and also East Africa and Indonesia,may appear to maintain
higher ice levels,but this is largely as they have already lost
critically important amounts of ice.

Venezuela’s last glacier, Humboldt, was reclassified in 2024, and Indonesia’s
“infinity Glacier” is expected to follow suit soon. Germany lost one of its
last glaciers in 2022, and Slovenia likely lost its last glacier decades
ago.