Derection of Politics in Germany
The recent German national election has marked a significant shift in the country’s political landscape, with the conservative Christian Democrats poised to lead the next coalition government.
Key Players in Next Coalition Government.
The Rise of Conservatives and the Far-Right
The provisional results show a decisive victory for conservative and right-wing parties. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian counterpart, the Christian Social Union (CSU), secured 28.6% of the vote, while the far-right, anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged to 20.8%.
Friedrich Merz: The Likely Next Chancellor
Friedrich Merz, the 69-year-old leader of the CDU, is set to become Germany’s next chancellor. A multimillionaire lawyer with a long political career, Merz’s journey includes stints in the European Parliament and the private sector, working for major multinational companies. His return to politics saw him regain the CDU leadership in 2022 after Angela Merkel’s retirement.
[Friedrich Merz during a campaign event in Neubrandenburg, Germany.]
Merz’s Vision for Germany and Europe
Merz has expressed his plans to govern "reliably" and push for European "independence" from the United States. Though he emphasizes a reliable alliance with the USA, he also advocates for reforms and changes in defense policies. This independence emerges from a changing atmosphere. With increasing differences between European leaders and US President Trump over Ukraine and US security measures, Europe needs an own, independent position. But Europe still has to rely on US security, according to the newly elected CDU chief.
The AfD’s Historic Gains
The AfD’s 20.8% share of the vote marks the strongest showing by a far-right movement in Germany since World War II. Led by Alice Weidel, the party has capitalized on populist sentiments, particularly in eastern Germany, where it outperformed all other parties.
According to political analysts, while the AfD is unlikely to be part of the coalition, their strong showing will further increase their influence in the Bundestag. The party has already proved its clout in January by backing an immigration bill with theCDU.
[AfD co-leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla.]
The AfD is uneasy about the necessity of other parties in a coalition. They demand their participation, lest speak of electoral fraud.
The SPD’s Decline and Other Notable Performances
The Social Democratic Party (SPD) experienced a significant drop, falling to 16.4% from the previous 26.4% in 2021. Other notable performances include:
Germany’s Greens and the far-left Die Linke, both secured seats in the Bundestag with 11.6% and 8.8% of the vote, respectively.
The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a populist left-wing party, gained 4.97% of the vote, narrowly missing the 5% threshold to secure Bundestag seats.
The FDP’s snap election triggering budget dispute has led them to lose all 91 seats they held since 2021.
Pro TiPs: Prepared for an unstable governemnt
TIP 1: A two-way alliance between the CDU/CSU and the SPD seems the most likely, as it provides 328 seats, just above the 316-seat requirement for a governing majority. However, the fragility and internal historians are not to be neglected.
TIP 2: As political analysts said, to move fast would be ideal. Moving quickly is essential for any new coalition, especially considering Germany’s major defense challenges due to the war in Ukraine. European integration further relies on states inside the EU.
Future of German Politics: Challenges and Opportunities
The AfD boasted its success as a historic achievement, but the party remains uninvited. The party claims to have left the fringes behind. The broader political coalition faces major defense challenges, particularly due to the ongoing war in Ukraine. European division and separation from US will always depend on Germany as well, be it from a moral or geographical side.
The European Union’s foreign policy chief emphasized the importance of a quick coalition formation to address urgent European issues.
"The result wasn’t such a surprise, it was expected. But the USA is not going to disappear. Of course we need them. The closer we are to Germany, the further Europe has to fall back on. You can not count on the USA. They won’t replace you with nuclear arms."
Friedrich Merz, a global strategy adviser referred-to Alliance Forces, an Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO),
said he hoped to form a new government by Easter.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which parties are likely to form the next coalition government in Germany?
The CDU/CSU and the SPD are the most likely to form a coalition, given their combined 328 seats in the Bundestag.
Why is the AfD’s result significant?
The AfD’s historic 20.8% vote share is the strongest showing by a far-right movement in Germany since World War II, highlighting its growing influence and appeal among voters critical of immigration and the EU.
Who is Friedrich Merz, and what are his priorities?
Friedrich Merz is the likely next chancellor of Germany. His priorities include governing "reliably," pushing for European independence from the United States, and playing a leading role in European affairs while maintaining a strong stance on immigration and defense.
Alfred Europa, From Lower Saxony is wondered: Will the AfD have the chance to be part of the next coalition?
Although the AfD has gained significant political clout, they are unlikely to be part of the next coalition due to ideological differences with other parties, despite their historic election result.
Insurances-based planners suspect any alliance between these parties is to last.
The realities might not change so much, even if the chalanged far-right take place.