German Election 2023: Predictable Outcomes or New Landscape?

The upcoming German election on February 23 is set to be a significant moment in European politics. Since the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition in December, the race has been largely predictable, favoring Friedrich Merz of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU-CSU). However, recent events, particularly the rise of the populist Alternative for Germany (AfD), and the implications of the U.S. policy shift on Ukraine, could reshape the political landscape.

The Dominant Contender and Up-and-Coming Challenges

Friedrich Merz, the leader of the CDU-CSU, remains at the forefront of the election race. Historically, it was expected that he would easily secure a majority coalition, likely comprising his party and the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) under the leadership of Oliver Scholz or the Greens led by Robert Habeck. However, the AfD’s surge to nearly 20% in the polls is changing this narrative. The CDU-CSU’s lead over the AfD has narrowed from a 15% margin in November to a mere 8% in recent surveys.

The AfD’s rise is largely attributed to recent mass killings in Magdeburg, Aschaffenburg, and Munich, where perpetrators, of Middle Eastern origin, had previously applied for asylum without success. These tragic events have fueled anti-immigration sentiments, benefiting the AfD’s platform.

The Firewall and Its Breach

In January, Friedrich Merz sponsored a resolution in the Bundestag advocating for stricter immigration controls and swift deportations of failed asylum seekers. Notably, this resolution received support from the AfD, marking a significant shift since mainstream parties had maintained a strict “firewall” policy against cooperation with far-right parties.

Merz’s move sparked widespread criticism and massive protests across Germany, highlighting the sensitive nature of coalition dynamics. Despite these objections, Merz insists that the CDU-CSU will not breach this long-standing ideological line.

The Role of New Issues in the Campaign

While economic management and coalition building are traditionally key issues, recent events have introduced new and conteproversial topics to the election discourse. The U.S. policy shift on Ukraine, particularly through Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Vice President J.D. Vance’s statements, have contributed to the debate on defense spending and NATO’s future.

Vance’s critique of Germany’s firewall strategy strengthened the AfD’s position, and both Scholz and other SPD officials reacted strongly. Foreign Minister Christian Lindner highlighted the potential for the U.S. to reconsider its stance on territorial concessions and NATO membership for Ukraine.

Implications of Military Spending and NATO

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has recently shifted his stance on the debt brake, which had long prevented significant increases in defense spending. This signal represents a cautious step towards addressing NATO’s demands for European nations to spend more on defense.

During the final televised debate on February 16, Merz supported sending German Taurus missiles to Ukraine, whereas Scholz opposed it. This long-standing debate about military aid to Ukraine may become obsolete if the U.S. achieves a ceasefire or progress in negotiations.

The AfD and the Ukraine War

The alternative party’s neutral stance on the Ukraine war is seen as a disqualifying factor by Merz. However, this strategy resonates well with the AfD’s base and has contributed to their increased popularity. In contrast, Scholz harshly critiqued AfD’s economic proposals, emphasizing traditional party lines.

Germany will likely seek to maintain its alliance with the U.S. and NATO, even as it adapts to a new reality. The country’s Atlanticist tradition and reliance on U.S. defense guarantees make it likely that Berlin will reconcile with any proposed settlement for Ukraine if it can ensure its national interests.

Conclusion: Unsettling surprises unlikely

In summary, while the German election on February 23 may confirm Friedrich Merz’s position as the frontrunner, the AfD’s rising influence introduces a new layer of complexity. Despite intense anxiety surrounding the Ukraine conflict and U.S. policy shifts, the election is unlikely to deliver a massive upset.

As voters head to the polls, the potential for a new, fractious coalition remains. The coming months will determine whether Germany can navigate its new political reality effectively, or if events continue to surpass expectations.

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