New Zealand’s Precarious Position in the Global Landscape

A BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launcher fires towards Russian positions on the frontline near Bakhmut, Donetsk region.
Photo: SERGEY SHESTAK / AFP

The ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, along with other global instabilities, raise significant concerns about the future of the international order. Experts are increasingly worried that these events could lead to its collapse or radical transformation.

Global Instability and the Potential for Disaster

Recent developments in geopolitics highlight the unpredictable nature of international relations. Notably, President Donald Trump’s views and actions have introduced unprecedented levels of unpredictability into global security.

Professor Richard Jackson from Otago University warns of the possible destruction and reconstruction of the post-war international order, describing a period marked by instability and uncertainty:

“His style and vision for the international system is so disruptive. We’re possibly seeing the kind of destruction and reconstruction of the entire sort of post-war international order.”

New Zealand’s Alignment with Major Powers

While these tensions escalate, New Zealand remains deeply aligned with major global powers, particularly the United States. Defence Minister Judith Collins recently attended security meetings in Germany, reaffirming the nation’s commitment to maintaining the international rules-based system.

Collins stated:

“We are committed to reinvigorating our security relationships and working with like-minded partners to uphold the international rules-based system and democratic values.”

New Zealand has made several strategic moves to align more closely with US defense and national security initiatives, positioning itself as part of the US military-industrial base.

US President Donald Trump speaks to the press after signing an executive order to create a US sovereign wealth fund in the Oval Office.
Photo: JIM WATSON / AFP

The Split Within the Anglosphere

Despite its alignment with the United States, New Zealand is increasingly finding itself at odds with smaller states and the ‘global south’. This is exemplified by the dispute with the Cook Islands over a deal with China.

Jackson notes:

“There’s a split that’s emerging which is not often talked about. The core Anglophone countries – the US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand – are pulling together, while others are left behind.”

New Zealand’s close ties with the Anglosphere countries, including its participation in NATO and support for Western-led initiatives, put pressure on Foreign Minister Winston Peters to maintain relations with major powers, despite his commitment to Pacific-friendly policies.

The Cost of Hypocrisy

New Zealand’s alignment with Western powers has not been without criticism, particularly regarding its selective support for international law and norms.

Jackson argues:

“We are being tarred with that brush, as part of a group that only cares about international law when it suits them.”

New Zealand’s stance in the Gaza conflict and its stance on the Trump plan for a US-owned ‘Riviera’ in Palestinians’ homeland illustrate this selective adherence to principles.

The Indopacific and Defence Spending

New Zealand has been warning about the volatility of the Indopacific region, especially in response to rising tensions and military actions in the area. Collins emphasizes the region’s deteriorating state:

“The region is deteriorating at a rate not seen in decades.”

This has prompted calls for increased defense spending and expanded military alliances, such as joining Aukus Pillar Two, despite warnings from China against such moves.

The AI Arms Race and Future of Warfare

The tech arms race, driven by advancements in AI, poses significant challenges to global security. Jackson worries that this could lead to increased defense spending and the continuation of failed military interventions.

“This tech arms race – driven by advances in AI – is a recipe for big defence spending when combined with our decades-long ‘faith’ in warfare systems that consistently under-delivered.”

Furthermore, Trump’s pressure on NATO and others to boost defense spending to two percent of GDP underscores potential increases in military expenditure for New Zealand.

A Ukrainian serviceman walks down a street in the frontline city of Bakhmut, Donetsk.
Photo: ANATOLII STEPANOV / AFP

New Zealand’s Struggle Between Independence and Alliances

Amid these global uncertainties, Jackson questions whether New Zealand can maintain its current alignment with major powers while seeking to establish a truly independent foreign policy.

“I don’t see a sign that New Zealand might seize the chance to set a truly independent foreign defence policy.”

New Zealand faces significant economic constraints, including a period of austerity, which could limit its ability to increase defense spending and align with major powers.

Conclusion

The global landscape is tumultuous, and New Zealand must carefully navigate its foreign and defense policies to balance its alliances with its independence. The ongoing conflicts and geopolitical shifts highlight the need for a strategic reassessment.

As Jackson notes, the AI arms race and other technological advancements will transform warfare in the coming years, raising questions about the effectiveness and appropriateness of increased defense spending.

In this unstable environment, New Zealand policymakers must engage in public debate and reassess their commitment to existing alliances to ensure the nation’s long-term security and sovereignty.

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