Global Investment Bank “Goldman Sachs” has revised its dollar to Turkish Lira (dollar/TL) exchange rate projections following the latest inflation report from the Central Bank of the republic of Türkiye (CBRT). The revisions address the expected exchange rate for the next 3, 6, and 12 months. According to the bank, the Turkish Lira (TL) typically demonstrates a recovery after an exchange rate shock, though underlying structural vulnerabilities persist.

Assessment of Reserve Dynamics

“Goldman Sachs” highlighted a meaningful decline in Türkiye’s foreign exchange reserves, reporting a loss of approximately $37 billion following the exchange rate volatility on March 19. The bank suggests that recouping this loss in the near term will be challenging. However, they also noted that reduced foreign currency positions and increased TL interest rates are mitigating factors that limit the potential for further currency devaluation.

TL Performance and Outlook

The financial institution observed that the TL has started to regain some value from previous lows, which is contributing to a slower annual depreciation rate than initially anticipated. The report emphasized that “the Turkish Lira still plays a decisive role in the fight against inflation,” and forecasts a more stable performance for the TL compared to 2024.

“the Turkish Lira still plays a decisive role in the fight against inflation”

Revised Dollar/TL Predictions

The updated forecasts from “Goldman Sachs” project the dollar/TL exchange rate to reach 41 in 3 months, 43 in 6 months, and 45 in 12 months. These figures are adjusted from previous estimates of 37, 39, and 42, respectively. The revisions are based on both internal economic developments within Türkiye and shifts in global monetary policies.