Creation of 1.7 million jobs, full employment (5.1%, the lowest unemployment rate since 2012), historical record of monthly per capita purchasing power (3,613 reais, about 600 euros), economic growth (2.3% in 2025), controlled inflation (3.99%), solid foreign direct investment (15 billion dollars), public accounts deficit under control (0.4%). As if that were not enough, the São Paulo Stock Exchange (Bovespa) registered a record of foreign capital in January: 26 billion dollars, exceeding the figure for all of 2025 (25,000). The Brazilian economy reaches the sky in the fourth year of Lula da Silva’s government. The legacy of Economy Minister Fernando Haddad, who has just left his position to be a candidate for governor of São Paulo in the October elections, has surprised even his detractors in the financial market, who predicted economic catastrophe if the left returned to govern.
However, the economic pessimism of Brazilians is on the rise. The latest Datafolha survey reveals that 46% of Brazilians consider that the economy has worsened in recent months, compared to 24% who think it has improved and 28% who estimate that everything remains the same.
How can we explain the increase in Brazilians’ pessimism if their purchasing power hits a ceiling? André Braz, coordinator of the Price Indices of the Brazilian Institute of Economics (FGV IBRE), explains in conversation with elDiario.es, that the economic pessimism of Brazilians is related to the accumulated increase in food prices. “Since 2020, several events have put a lot of pressure on the price of food, which rose twice as much as inflation. Although in 2025, its price was stable, it does not erase what happened in these years. This explains the discomfort of families, even with such good economic indicators,” says Braz.
The expert also argues that climate change triggered global demand and directly affected the price of coffee, of which Brazil is the world’s main exporter: “The weather was not good and the grain did not grow satisfactorily. We had a strong reduction in national supply and that caused an increase in price.” It is no coincidence that the Datafolha survey shows that 33% of those interviewed consider that their personal finances have worsened in recent months (in December it was only 26%).
On the other hand, although informal work has been reduced to a historic low (37.2%), still 38.7 million Brazilians do not have formal employment. The informality rate rises to 71.1% among the motorcycle delivery sector (known in Brazil as motorcycle couriers), according to a report by ESG Insights. At the same time, 57.3% of workers and 68% of young people between 18 and 24 years old report difficulties in finding employment, second data from the Labor Market Survey report.
Are these factors enough to explain the economic pessimism of Brazilians at the most golden moment of their economy? The fine print of the Datafolha survey suggests that the main explanation lies elsewhere: in political polarization.
The economic blindness of polarization
The latest Datafolha survey reveals that 77% of those who are going to vote for the far-right candidate Flávio Bolsonaro in the October elections think that the economy has worsened in recent months, compared to 14% of the voters of the leftist Lula.
For 35% of those interviewed, the economy is going to get worse in the coming months. At this point, polarization also marks the perceptual trend: 51% of Lula’s voters foresee an improvement in the economy, compared to 14% who intend to vote for Flávio Bolsonaro.
Pessimism also predominates among the traditional right (only 16% of Romeu Zema (Novo) voters and 17% among Ratinho Junior voters trust in an economic improvement). Furthermore, the negative perception of the economy is 57% among evangelical voters (more inclined to vote to the right), compared to 41% of Catholics.
However, not even in a country where 90% admit to having believed in fake news and in which the extreme right produces them on an industrial scale, political polarization does not fully explain the economic pessimism.
The turning point in economic perception occurred in July 2025, after Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazil. The survey carried out by Datafolha on July 29 and 30, 2025, after the announcement of the US tariff, reported that 45% of Brazilians considered that the economy was going to get worse. A few days earlier, Eduardo Leite, governor of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, one of the richest in Brazil, stated that the “50% tariffs that the United States applied to Brazil are a reflection of polarization, which only divides us.” Leite, from the traditional right sector, blamed the Lula government: “(polarization) is also a consequence of a Brazilian government that always opted for the same polarization.”
Despite the economic perception of the right and the extreme right, the Lula government has achieved the best economic performance of the last decade. The outgoing minister Fernando Haddad has accomplished the feat of exempting from paying taxes those who earn less than 5,000 reais per month (about 850 euros), approving the Tax on Financial Operations (IOF) and increasing taxes by 10% on the richest.
