World War 3: Is Conflict Inevitable?

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As the war in Ukraine enters its third year, the geopolitical climate in Europe is becoming even more tense. Against a backdrop of military tensions and increasingly alarmist declarations, one sentence in particular caused the chancelleries to jump: according to Alexander Grushko, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, an armed conflict between Russia and Europe would be now “inevitable”.

Europe accused of preparing for war

Alexander Grushko’s statement comes at the OSCE Ministerial Council, held in Vienna on December 4, 2025. Before the representatives of the Member States, the Russian deputy minister affirmed thatan armed clash between Russia and Europe was now “inevitable”while directly accusing Europe and the West of “deliberately preparing” their society, their economy and their armed forces for a war against Moscow.

To justify these accusations, Alexander Grushko asserts that European countries would now have designated Russia as “long-term threat”a formulation he presents as proof of a Western strategy. According to him, this posture would even be accompanied by what he calls “absurd intentions attributed to Russia”as if Europe was trying to convince itself of an imminent attack coming from the Kremlin.

Russia also presents this situation as a failure of diplomatic mechanisms. Alexander Grushko underlines in particular that the OSCE “structured dialogue”, supposed to allow military de-escalation, would have first been frozen and then relaunched without the participation of Moscow or Minsk. For him, this voluntary isolation would mark a “deep crisis” within the organizationwhich would no longer be able to play its historic role of mediator between East and West.

NATO on heightened vigilance

If Moscow accuses Europe of preparing for war, the Atlantic Alliance puts forward a completely different narrative: that of reaction, not provocation. On December 3, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recalled that member countries must maintain a “unwavering vigilance” in the face of the behavior judged “increasingly unpredictable and reckless” of Russia.

During this speech, he gave a figure which circulated widely: according to him, Moscow now spends nearly 40% of its national budget for defense. For NATO, this massive financial effort confirms accelerated militarization of the country since the outbreak of war in Ukraine in February 2022. Mark Rutte therefore insists on the need for allies to react proportionally and strengthen their own capabilities.

This vigilance also involves an economic effort. The Alliance wants to push its members to achieve an investment objective of 5% of GDP in defense by 2035. For the Secretary General, it is not just a question of numbers, but of a structural transformation: making NATO more adaptable, capable of deterring any aggression and defending every “centimeter of allied territory”.

Concrete measures to face growing threats

Beyond alarmist speeches, certain European countries are starting to take very concrete measures to strengthen their security. The most recent example is that of a military agreement signed on December 4, 2025, presented as a direct response to the risks linked to Russian submarine activities in the North Atlantic. This agreement marks a new stage in defense cooperation in Northern Europe, in an area where the issues are particularly sensitive: the protection of critical digital infrastructures.

One of the main concerns concerns the submarine cableswhich provide more than 95% of global Internet communications. Several Western capitals claim to have observed an increased presence of Russian ships near these facilities in recent months. In this context, the creation of a common naval fleet aims to ensure reinforced surveillance and rapid reaction in the event of a threat to these strategic infrastructures, the vulnerability of which has become a major subject since the start of the conflict in Ukraine in 2022.

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The political leaders involved described this agreement as “historic”, believing that it responds to a situation of “profound global instability”. Beyond the symbol, the initiative illustrates a reality: Europe is no longer content with increasing its military budgets, it is now putting in place targeted operational systems. This increased cooperation in the Far North clearly shows that the region is becoming one of the priority theaters of deterrence vis-à-vis Moscow, while diplomatic tensions continue to intensify.