It can go really bad for the close friends to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Wagner leader Jevgeny Prigozjin was warmly cherished in the Kremlin. Until just over two years ago he marched with his troops against Moscow in a revolt against how the Russian military leadership waged the war in Ukraine.
The wagnes forces, one here in an estimated 25,000 soldiers, most of whom have participated in the year -long battle for Bachmut in southern Ukraine, made mutiny. Putin was shaken. The army came halfway to Moscow before Belarus leader Aleksandr Lukashenko stepped in and negotiated a settlement: the mercenaries received an offer for a safe port in Belarus against the cancellation of the rebellion.
– Some ended up in Belarus and trained Lukashenko’s military, others were devoured by Russian fighting forces in Ukraine, but Prigozjin’s fate was already decided, it was just a matter of time, Alessandro Arduino told DN.
He is an expert on the Wagner Group at King’s College in London and Rusi, a prominent think tank for defense and security in the UK.
– As a researcher of historical lego armies, I was surprised that everyone seemed so shocked by Prigozjin’s death, he says.
Alessandro Arduino refers to the philosopher, author, statesman and historian Niccolò Machiavelli from Florence who lived 1469-1527. Machiavelli believed that the career for successful Lego Armies can only end by killing the king and becoming king himself, or being killed by the king.
– I think we already know what happened to Prigozjin, says the Italian academic about the air crash that cost the wagner leader Life in August 2023 and which was apparently happening on the Russian president’s order.
Two years later the forces are divided and their tasks have changed. As usual, the entire Wagner group is bundled together as one and the same army, says Arduino – even though it already consisted of different parts before Yevgeny Prigozjin.
At the end of 2023, some of the wagnes forces were incorporated into the Russian National Guard, according to the British intelligence service. The National Guard has been described as President Putin’s private army. Other former wagnes soldiers were sent back to Ukraine on six -month contracts. Again, others signed an agreement to fight for Ramzan Kadyrov’s forces in Chechnya. Or traveled to Africa.
For example, the Wagnergruppen signed a contract with Mali to fight extremism. In the Central African Republic, it has supported the country’s president and in return has been given the rights to break gold and diamonds and bring timber out of the country.
Common in Putin’s recent times in power has been the important role of the group in Russia’s foreign policy. Through it, the Kremlin was able to reach its goals for a long time without it being clear that Russia was behind.
After Prigozjin’s death, high representatives of the Russian army rushed to the Central African Republic to explain that cooperation would continue as usual.
– The fact that Prigozjin is gone does not change the contracts with the Wagner group. But it is ironic that it was previously called a private army. Partly because their only client has always been Mother Russia. Partly because it is prohibited by establishing a private military company in Russia, says Alessandro Arduino.
– When the Russian military intelligence service GRU has now opened openly, everyone knows who pulls the threads. Russia has thus lost a chance to deny the connection.
In Mali the Wagner Group was baptized About to the Africa Corps. The soldiers are the same as before, with just a new emblem on the uniform. In this way, the change is not great, according to Alessandro Arduino. Still, he believes that a shift is on the way, which is due to the open connection to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
– Historically, the Ministry of Defense has a passive attitude which means that they prefer to train local troops, instead of going out on the battlefield and fighting himself, as Wagner did before.
Especially since some 80 semi-military soldiers in the group were killed in an ambush in Mali last year.
– It was a stinging loss, but that does not mean that the Wagner group and its successors give up in Africa.
Alessandro Arduino points to Jevgeny Prigozjin’s ability to create propaganda and disinformation that he woven together with his business. Russia continues to try to do so, but does not make it as successful and therefore a greater measure of bureaucracy will appear, he believes.
Wagner thus remains in Africa, but in most places under the name of the Africa Corps – and with a more passive and cumbersome way of organizing than before.
South of the Sahara, the traces of Russia remain in many places. The military coups has replaced each other in Mali, Chad, Burkina Faso and Niger for the past five years. The juntas have brusently sent out French troops, so that French forces can no longer fight terrorists in al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. The US influence has also decreased after the country’s last air base for drones is closed in Niger.
– It leaves the area open to terrorists, in Mali for example, but jihadist acts also increase in both Eastern and West Africa. The military juntas use the Lego nectar armies to protect themselves.
What was once the Wagner group still has an important role to play in Russia’s geopolitical puzzle, according to Arduino. During the Cold War, Africa was of great importance, in the meantime the continent was forgotten. But under Putin, Africa’s importance has grown again.
– Without a lot of money, Wagner on behalf of Russia has had much to say about in the region and taken control of important ports in Libya and Sudan. At the same time, the group has made money on natural resources – and the Africa corps will continue to be an important asset, says Alessandro Arduino.
But he sees a great difficulty for Russia. How can the country be able to provide for the troops in Africa?
It’s not just about most of the equipment being used in Ukraine. But also that the Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad was overthrown, despite Russia’s support.
With the fall of the Assad regime, Russia risks losing control of the port of Tartus and the air base Khmeimim.
– Without these places – which have been the springboard to Libya, from which Russian equipment has been forwarded in Africa – Russia can face a logistical nightmare, the Italian Wagner expert estimates.
But when Foreign Minister Asaad Al-Shibani in Syria’s new government recently made his first visit to Russia and met Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, politics were replaced who can gossip about a perhaps unexpectedly pragmatic future cooperation.
Lavrov thanked the new Syrian board for guaranteed the security of the two Russian bases in the country, where staff remain after all. That Russia previously supported its sworn enemy seemed forgotten. But so does the new management in Damascus international support and then the benefit is prioritized.
