Opinion
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President Trump covets exercising absolute power. In the Iran war, Trump is in total command – but out of control.
Iran is Trump’s war of choice – much more than another strike at Iran’s nuclear activities just nine months after “obliterating” them – and it is unravelling his presidency.
This war is over much more than Iran’s nuclear obsession. The targets are Iran’s ballistic missiles, its navy, the terrorist proxies across the region, Iran’s governing infrastructure – and regime change.
Barak Ravid of Axios has clearly distilled how to judge the outcome of this war.
”Victory for Iran will be if they’re still standing after Israel and the US finish their operation. If the regime still stands, Iran won. That’s it. They don’t need to do anything else other than stay alive — that’s their advantage because it’s an asymmetric war.”
“In reality, if the regime stays, then Israel and the US lost. So for the US and Israel to win, it needs to be clear that the regime either collapsed or that whoever is in charge is a sort of US puppet.”
Trump insists that he has won. Last week at a rally in Kentucky: “OPERATION EPIC FURY!!! Is that a great name? Well, it’s only good if you win, and we’ve won. Let me tell you. We’ve won. You know, you never liked to say too early you won. We won.”
Not quite.
Trump has said he wants “unconditional surrender”. He insists he must pick Iran’s next leader. Of the new Supreme Leader, Trump says, “Khamenei’s son is a lightweight. I have to be involved in the appointment, like with Delcy Rodriguez in Venezuela.” Trump believes he can impose the Venezuela model onto Iran – but Trump has not found any Iranian accomplices.
Not to worry. The war, Trump said“is very complete, pretty much. We’re very far ahead of schedule.” The war “will be ended soon”. But it’s not a war but a “short-term excursion”.
But the excursion ends only, as Trump says“When I feel it – feel it in my bones.”
No feelings yet. Trump’s claim that “The Straits are in great shape!” is at violent odds with petrol prices spiking every day and oil tankers either not moving or on fire in the straits.
Trump attacked Kharg Island to break open Iran’s grip on the waterway, but Iran is continuing to hold the Straits hostage – which means the war will continue indefinitely.
Trump’s best off-ramp may well be his summit with President Xi of China on March 31. Does Trump really want to face Xi with an ongoing war in which Trump has failed to vanquish the enemy?
What is unravelling Trump’s presidency are forces he has unleashed that are now out of control.
Trump’s assertion that the US can easily come through this war is not crafted in words that can win hearts and minds. “Short-term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace,” he wrote on social media last week. “ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!”
The fools are talking to the pollsters. Support for the Iran war is exceptionally low compared to support previous presidents have commanded at the start of wars past, including in the Middle East.
Talk of stagflation is gripping Wall Street. The war is inducing slower economic growth, higher inflation in the longer term, and wages unable to keep up. This alone could decide the November midterms.
There is also unravelling within the White House. Vice President JD Vance has been haunted by the “forever wars”. Vance has been conspicuously quiet on this war. Trump spilled the beans. Vance is “philosophically a little bit different than me”, Trump saidadding that Vance was “maybe less enthusiastic about going” into Iran. A White House official says Vance “just opposes” the war.
But the showman-in-chief believes he has a winning performance. “I hope you are impressed,” he said to a journalist. “How do you like the performance? I mean, Venezuela is obvious. This might be even better. How do you like the performance?”
Cracks are spreading under Trump’s feet everywhere he treads.
Bruce Wolpe is a senior fellow at the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre. He has served on the Democratic staff in the US Congress and as chief of staff to former prime minister Julia Gillard.
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Bruce Wolpe is a senior fellow at the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre. He has served on the Democratic staff in the US Congress and as chief of staff to former prime minister Julia Gillard.