US-China Conflict: Beyond Nukes & Jihadism?

The attack of USA e Israel contra Iran It is usually justified with narratives that have little to do with reality, such as preventing it from developing nuclear weapons or end it jihadist terrorism. They are very attractive justifications to sell to the population, but they are very far from reality. And the only reason behind this war is to suffocate China energetically.

If the US was truly concerned about Iranian nuclear weapons, it would have put the same effort into preventing countries like Pakistan o North Korea developed it, but they didn’t. Furthermore, American intelligence has already denied that Iran had or was developing a nuclear weapon. And if they really cared about the fight against Islamic terrorism, they would break relations with their Sunni partners in Saudi Arabia or Qatar, who are the real financiers of Islamic terrorism.

But the only thing that interests the US and is what it has focused its foreign policy since Trump was re-elected as leader of the free world is in contain china. Trump knows that the US is in a complicated situation, with a debt of 130% of GDP and a deficit of 6% and also knows that a great power, when it begins to allocate more to paying interest on the debt than to military investment, ends up losing its status in pursuit of another emerging powerin this case China.

This has been a constant throughout history. It happened with Romacon Spain and with England and if it is not remedied, it will also happen to the US, since it has been two years spending more on debt interest than on defense and is on its way to the third. And in a situation like this, either you reduce your debt, or you end the power that threatens your hegemony. It seems that Trump is choosing the second option.

The attack on Iran, like that of Venezuelaits main objective suffocate China energetically. The Asian country is the second largest oil consumer in the world, behind the United States. But while the US is self-sufficient, China has to import 70%.

Iran exported 95% of its oil to China, which offsets it with enormous discounts for international sanctionsaround $12-13 less compared to a barrel of Brent. And although cutting off the supply of that oil would not be a catastrophe for China, since it represents around 13% of its imports and could compensate it with its reserves, which The US now controls the entire Strait of Hormuz Yes, it would be a hard blow for China, since they pass through there more than 50% of its oil imports and 20% of its Natural Gas imports.

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Although first we will have to see if the operation in Iran goes well, since we must take into account that Iran is not Venezuela and Provoking a regime change solely with the air force is something that does not usually work. We saw it in Irakwith the Operation Desert Storm in 1991, which failed to end the regime of Port Hussein and a ground invasion was necessary in 2003. In the case of Iran, due to its geographical conditions, carrying out a ground deployment would be very costly, both in material and human terms, and this would cause Trump to lose the midterm elections. Therefore, the success of changing the Ayatollah regime will depend on the Iranians themselves. And once Venezuela falls, if Iran also falls, the US would only have to separate Russia and China to finish suffocating the Asian giant.

And that could be closer than we think. Last month a leaked Kremlin internal report in which a possible economic partnership with the United States —including the return of Russia al dollar settlement system and cooperation in the field of fossil fuels—. And it is that Russia would be seeking to reduce dependence on Chinasince it sees that its territories in the Pacific are in danger, especially those located within the Manchuria region, taken from China during the Opium Wars and claimed by it since then. And although a rapprochement with the US would not mean breaking relations with China, it could have a significant economic impact for the Asian giant, as Russia gains negotiating power.

That is, Trump can meet him with Xi Jinping in Pekin next March 31 having neutralized, in less than three months, to China’s three main allies and controlling much of its energy supplies. This will allow it to obtain a much more advantageous deal on critical minerals than the one negotiated at its last meeting in October, which is what this is all about, after all. The new diplomacy is marked by critical minerals and energy.

*Julián Pérez Solana, economist

The attack of USA e Israel contra Iran It is usually justified with narratives that have little to do with reality, such as preventing it from developing nuclear weapons or end it jihadist terrorism. They are very attractive justifications to sell to the population, but they are very far from reality. And the only reason behind this war is to suffocate China energetically.