Kstovo Refinery Fire: Ukraine’s Deep Strike Campaign Gains Momentum

Late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning, Ukrainian drones struck the Nizhny Novgorod oil refinery in Kstovo, located in central Russia, approximately 520 miles from the front line in northern Ukraine. The Ukrainian general staff in Kyiv described this attack as a “powerful” fire that took hold early Wednesday morning.

The results and extent of the damage are still being assessed, according to the Ukrainian general staff. However, Russian bloggers have already begun expressing concern over this strike and other recent Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s approximately 30 large refineries, key nodes in the country’s vital oil industry. One blogger commented, criticizing the noticeable lack of effective air defense around these strategic facilities. “Yet another refinery in flames,” they lamented.

Escalating Campaign

Ukraine’s campaign of long-distance strikes targeting Russian oil facilities has been ongoing for approximately two years. However, this month’s raids have marked a significant escalation in intensity. The Kstovo plant alone processes 13,000,000 barrels of oil annually, which accounts for roughly 5% of Russia’s total refined output. Other strikes this month against multiple refineries may have reduced Russian petroleum product production by over 10%.

While refineries can be repaired over time, Ukraine consistently deploys its drone arsenal. Over three years, Ukrainian industry has developed over a dozen distinct models of long-range strike drones, transforming standard sport planes into combat-capable aircraft capable of carrying hundreds of pounds of explosives over ranges exceeding 800 miles with pinpoint precision. Some drone models have flown more than 1,000 miles.

The Cost Equation

Compared to the immense costs of rebuilding a refinery, which could easily exceed multimillion-dollar figures, the cost of deploying drones is relatively low. For example, transforming an Aeroprakt A-22 sport plane into an attack drone costs around $130,000. This disparity makes it financially advantageous for Ukraine to continue its drone-based attacks.

Strategic Intentions

The oil raid strategy serves as a broader effort by Ukraine to financially cripple Russia, aiming to deprive it of its principal source of state revenue and thereby hinder the Russian war effort by strangling its funding.

International Support

The United States has been a critical supporter of Ukraine in this endeavor. Fresh sanctions imposed by the Biden administration on tankers carrying Russian oil just before its conclusion aimed to deter Chinese and Indian buyers from purchasing Russian oil.

The incoming Trump administration’s stance on these sanctions remains uncertain. Trump’s chaotic early days in office have yet to clarify America’s role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Trump had previously pledges to end the war within his first 100 days, a promise he has yet to fulfill.

Keith Kellogg, a retired U.S. Army lieutenant general and Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, has been advocating for stricter sanctions on what he deems Russia’s “weaponized” energy sector. While Kellogg’s views are influential, there’s no assurance that his recommendations will guide U.S. policy.

Ukrainian Determination

The Ukrainian military remains resolute, undaunted by the uncertain path forward. The general staff has affirmed that combat operations against strategic facilities supporting the Russian military campaign in Ukraine will continue.

“Combat work on strategic facilities involved in providing support for the Russian armed aggression against Ukraine will continue,” the Ukrainian general staff stated.

Conclusion

The recent attack on the Kstovo refinery is a testament to Ukraine’s innovative use of drone technology to pressure Russia’s economy and combat strategy. As the conflict continues, Ukraine’s ability to sustain and expand this campaign will be a critical factor in shaping the outcome of the war.

Stay informed and share your thoughts. Join the discussion on Twitter, or visit our website for more insights and updates.