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After the blockade by Hungary, the EU is discussing how it can continue to finance Ukraine. The Hungarian election in mid-April could change everything. But what if not? And what should happen until then?
The heads of the European Union usually stand on a small podium for the official family photo – that was also the case at this summit in Brussels. However, the picture, which shows the circumstances in the family much more honestly, was taken somewhere else, in the large summit hall.
When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj joined in, the assembled heads of state and government sat listening to him. Almost all. Viktor Orban stood at a distance outside the table. The others made no secret of their frustration with him.
The Hungarian Prime Minister is blocking the financing of Ukraine, a loan of 90 billion euros, which he himself had long ago decided on. Not only is he angering the rest of the EU, but he is also forcing the others to think through the possible scenarios that could now follow.
Everything depends on the Hungarian election in April
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The European Union has promised Ukraine that it will provide financial support. Zelensky calls the loan crucial and a “resource to protect lives.” Money was actually supposed to flow in April. And now?
To put it bluntly, one could say: The European Union’s calendar is currently divided into two phases: one before and one after April 12th. Because on this day Hungary elects a new parliament. It is conceivable that one or another EU leader has marked this date boldly in red. After that, the problem surrounding the Ukraine loan could be resolved – or even worsened massively.
Is it really about the oil?
Orban says he will give up his resistance if Russian oil flows to Hungary again through the Druzhba pipeline. However, the line that was destroyed by Russian shelling must be repaired on Ukrainian territory. They want that too, says Ukraine. Until recently, a support team from the EU did not even have access to the pipeline. Orban accuses Ukraine of preventing the repairs.
But is Orban only interested in oil? He could also get that from Croatia. Many in Brussels therefore assume that Orban wants to remain in the role of tough resistance fighter against “those in Brussels” until the end of the election campaign.
Can the EU bridge the financial gap?
That would mean that there will be no green light for the 90 billion euros before April 12th. The rest of the EU is therefore well advised to prepare a short-term financial bridge. The full amount does not have to be mobilized.
Whoever takes part will probably want to avoid making the operation look like a legal sleight of hand. The fear is that Orban could exploit this in the election campaign.
A group of member states could step in as a coalition of willing supporters. Bilateral loans would allow Ukraine to buy weapons or pay civil servants.
What will happen after the election in Hungary?
The outcome of the elections in April is crucial for the further scenarios. In the snapshot of opinion research, Orban’s challenger Péter Magyar is in the lead. As the new Prime Minister, he could end the blockade very quickly. Magyar has so far clearly positioned itself against Orban’s course. So it could certainly send a welcome message to the rest of the EU.
If Orban wins the election, he will not necessarily have to maintain his rejection of the Ukraine loan. He could revert to familiar behavior. The Hungarian head of government has repeatedly vetoed or threatened to do so, only to give in at the last moment in the negotiations.
The most difficult situation imaginable occurs if Orban wins the election and still maintains the blockade. Then Ukraine supporters need alternatives. Will the frozen Russian billions at the financial service provider Euroclear come into play again? That was the original plan in December, which Chancellor Friedrich Merz had long favored. But the plan failed due to resistance, especially from Belgium, where Euroclear is based.
The bottom line is that they are simulation games with multiple options, question marks and subjunctives. April 12th should provide clarity. In any case, the European Union has its word with Ukraine. The commitment to secure the country financially stands.
