Kremlin’s Grandiose Plans Meet Ukrainian Resistance

As russia prepares to commemorate Victory Day on May 9th, marking the anniversary of the end of World War II, the shadow of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine looms large. This year’s celebrations, particularly meaningful due to the round anniversary, are intended to showcase the Kremlin’s ideological strength. However, Ukraine’s resilience and strategic responses have complicated Moscow‘s narrative.

Ukraine’s Strategic Restraint Amidst Tensions

Despite facing relentless aggression, Ukraine has demonstrated a calculated approach to Russia’s Victory Day. While Ukrainian forces have shown the capability to strike targets within Russia, including the Moscow region, there’s a deliberate effort to avoid actions that could be perceived as escalatory during the May 9th celebrations. This restraint is partly influenced by concerns about potential retaliation from Moscow and the desire to maintain support from key allies like the United States.

According to a report in “The Washington Post,” citing unnamed Ukrainian Armed Forces representatives, Kyiv is wary of conducting attacks on May 9th, fearing it could provoke a severe response from Moscow and potentially strain relations with Washington.This strategic calculation highlights the delicate balance Ukraine must maintain as it defends its sovereignty.

Moreover, a Ukrainian military source indicated that Russia has concentrated its anti-aircraft defence systems around Moscow, making prosperous attacks during the parade unlikely. This concentration of defenses underscores the high stakes and potential risks associated with any offensive actions during the celebrations.

International Guests and Security Concerns

The Kremlin has extended invitations to several high-profile international figures, including the Head of the Chinese State, Xi Jinping, the President of Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and the President of Vietnam. To ensure the security of these guests and prevent any disruptions,a three-day fire offering,essentially a security lockdown,has been implemented from May 8th to 10th.

Zelensky‘s Stance: No Part in Russia’s “Holiday Atmosphere”

In response to Russia’s planned celebrations, Ukraine proposed a 30-day ceasefire, which was rejected by Moscow. President Volodymyr Zelensky has stated unequivocally that Ukraine will not be responsible for the war on Russian territory and refuses to participate in what he perceives as a staged “holiday atmosphere.” This firm stance reflects Ukraine’s determination to maintain its sovereignty and resist attempts to normalize the ongoing conflict.

Expert Analysis: Risks and realities

Sandis Schrasers, a board member at Lato, commented on Zelensky’s response, stating:

In my opinion, Volodimir Zelensky said quite rightly that he was absolutely not answered in Russia, and it is the choice of guests going to Moscow and also the risk. Two countries are in a state of war.
Sandis Schrasers, Lato Board Member

Schrasers emphasized the significant risks Kyiv woudl face by attacking Moscow during this period, particularly given the presence of high-level international delegations. Such an action could have negative repercussions on the battlefield and potentially alienate crucial allies.

heightened Security Measures and Public Warnings

Adding to the atmosphere of heightened security, Moscow authorities have warned residents against using pyrotechnics during the holidays, threatening criminal liability for violations. Furthermore, there have been reports of potential disruptions to web communications, with some irregularities already observed. These measures reflect the Kremlin’s efforts to maintain control and prevent any potential unrest during the Victory Day celebrations.

The Shadow Over Red square: Uncertainty and Humiliation

As Russia prepares for its annual May 9th victory Day parade, a sense of unease permeates the Kremlin. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, now entering its fourth year, has cast a long shadow, raising questions about the true state of Russia’s military might and its leader’s strategic calculations.

The number of advanced “Armata” tanks participating in the parade has dwindled, a stark reminder of the losses sustained in Ukraine. According to security expert Janis Kažociņš, the potential for “humiliations in Red Square” looms large, particularly if Ukraine were to take assertive action that Russian leaders, including Dmitry Medvedev, would respond if Ukraine will dare to do something in general.

Russian leader Vladimir Putin himself could be watched remotely.

The Staggering cost of a Protracted Conflict

Despite initial ambitions, Russia’s full-scale invasion has yielded limited territorial gains. Kažociņš estimates that Russian forces control only about 10% of Ukrainian land, a figure achieved at an exorbitant price. The human and material costs are staggering.

Kažociņš stated that It has paid them almost all the techniques that are still preserved, and about 900,000 fallen and very seriously wounded soldiers. These losses have considerably strained Russia’s resources and exposed vulnerabilities in its military capabilities. The conflict has become a quagmire,far from the swift victory initially envisioned.

Putin’s Predicament: Navigating Domestic and International Pressures

President Putin faces a complex dilemma. Domestically, he must justify the immense sacrifices made in Ukraine and explain why the “special military operation” has not achieved its stated goals. The economic consequences of the war are also becoming increasingly apparent.

Internationally, Putin must contend with shifting geopolitical dynamics. The possibility of a ceasefire with Ukraine presents its own challenges,requiring him to reconcile the decision to initiate the war with the need to find a path toward de-escalation. The role of international actors, particularly the United States, further complicates the situation.

Putin has major problems and he cannot even calmly call on the Allies to the Red Square, as the whole world is talking about the Ukrainians being able to do something.

Janis Kažociņš, Geopolitical Research Center

Orban’s Absence: A Sign of Shifting Alliances?

Even among Russia’s closest allies, cracks are beginning to appear. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a long-time supporter of Putin, has canceled his planned trip to Moscow. While the reasons for this cancellation remain unclear, it raises questions about the strength of Russia’s international support and the potential for further shifts in alliances.

Economic Fallout: A nation at War

The Russian economy has been profoundly impacted by the war in Ukraine. Sanctions, military spending, and the disruption of trade have taken a heavy toll. Kažociņš notes that he’s fully sank the economy. the economy is now what’s during the war.and it will take a very long time to turn it around. And it won’t be easy. Rebuilding the economy after the conflict will be a monumental task,requiring significant investment and reform.

A Calculated Absence: Orbán Skips Moscow’s May 9th Celebrations

Hungarian prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s decision to forgo the May 9th Victory Day celebrations in Moscow has sparked considerable debate. Rather than a snub,some analysts suggest this move reflects a calculated realignment of political priorities,focusing on a potential future relationship with Donald Trump.

The Trump Factor: A Shifting Geopolitical Landscape

Eduards Liniņš, a commentator for Latvian Radio, posits that Orbán’s decision is deeply intertwined with the evolving dynamic between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. According to Liniņš, a growing weariness from Trump regarding Putin’s perceived imperial ambitions is a key factor. This includes Trump’s increasing demands for Ukrainian forces to withdraw from territories not fully under Russian control.

Therefore, Orban, in his opinion, is now focused not on Putin, but on Trump, which is well understood.

This strategic pivot suggests Orbán is anticipating a shift in global power dynamics and positioning himself to maintain influence within a potentially altered international order. This comes as global uncertainty rises, with the war in Ukraine continuing to impact international relations.

Ukraine’s Assertive Posture: Psychological Operations and Symbolic Dates

In the lead-up to May 9th, Ukraine has intensified its drone attacks on Russian territory, targeting various military installations. While the physical damage is significant,the psychological impact,particularly on the Kremlin,is arguably more profound. these attacks raise questions about the security of major Russian cities during the Victory Day celebrations.

Psychological Warfare and the Importance of May 9th

These actions are viewed by some as a form of psychological warfare, demonstrating Ukraine’s capacity to strike deep within Russia. This assertive stance creates a backdrop for the May 9th commemorations, potentially overshadowing the intended message of Russian strength and resolve. As of 2025, drone warfare has become an increasingly common tactic in modern conflicts, highlighting the evolving nature of military strategy.

Moreover, Ukrainian President Zelensky has called upon European leaders to commemorate May 9th in Kyiv, framing it as a party of European freedom and peace, mirroring the observances held in Britain on May 5th.This symbolic counter-narrative aims to challenge Russia’s interpretation of the day and underscore the values of European unity and resistance against aggression.